DWS: Prefers European and Japanese stocks over US stocks

2024-01-24 16:09

Zhitongcaijing
DWS is optimistic about the outlook for the price of gold. Based on expectations of interest rate cuts this year, among other reasons, there is potential for further price increases in gold.
DWS released the market outlook for January 2024, including opinions and allocations for markets and asset classes. DWS believes that investors should not blindly chase after high returns. With the substantial increase in the stock market at the end of last year, major stock markets had already exceeded their high single-digit growth forecast set for 2024 in November. There is no reason to further raise target prices unless the 10-year bond yield is significantly lower than DWS's expected 4.2% by the end of the year, or unless corporate profits are significantly higher than forecasted in November, neither of which has occurred at this moment.
DWS also believes that the market is relatively calm at the moment, with the S&P 500 volatility index falling to a low of 12, reflecting a low level of risk awareness among investors. As an investor who does not chase after prices, it is believed that strategic stock investors should be able to find better entry points this year. European (especially small and mid-cap stocks) and Japanese stocks are preferred over American stocks due to their lower risk premium.
DWS predicts that the U.S. economy will remain weak in 2024, picking up speed only in 2025. Geopolitical uncertainties and escalating risks will significantly drag down economic growth. Economic growth in the eurozone in 2024 is expected to be more moderate.
However, the crisis of rising inflation has not yet been resolved. In December, Germany's inflation rate reached 3.7%. Energy prices continue to rise due to the increase in carbon prices, coupled with ongoing labor cost increases, which could lead to a potential inflation rate of 4% in January. The inflation rate in the eurozone rose to 2.9% in December, with service prices continuing to rise, reaching a 4% increase in December.
DWS expects central bank rate cuts to be delayed or implemented later than market expectations. The market's expectations for a central bank rate cut in December were mainly due to inflation expectations. However, more and more signs indicate that expectations for rate cuts are overly optimistic. Labor market trends are crucial and may trigger wage pressure. The latest data in the U.S. does not show any easing in the tightness of the job market. With job positions increasing and wages growing by 4.1% year-on-year, the Federal Reserve may not rush to cut rates.
As for gold prices, they may continue to rise due to the increase in U.S. government bond yields and a stronger dollar, although gold prices have slightly fallen in the past few weeks. DWS is optimistic about the future of gold prices, believing that there is potential for further increases due to factors such as expectations of rate cuts this year.