Daiwa: Bullish on Japan's stock market in 2024 but risks still worth monitoring

2024-01-29 19:26

Zhitongcaijing
Jim Caron, Managing Director of Morgan Stanley Investment Management's Portfolio Solutions team, stated that this year it is advisable to moderately increase holdings in stocks and reduce holdings in long-term bonds, which will help achieve a more stable overall performance. The firm's strategy involves reducing short-term bonds and adjusting cash positions.
Regarding whether Japanese stocks can maintain their recent strong performance this year, Jim Caron, Investment Director of Morgan Stanley Investment Management's Portfolio Solutions team, expressed that the medium-term outlook continues to support the revitalization of Japan, but it may not be smooth sailing. Since current valuations are in line with the long-term median, profit growth will be a key driver of total returns. While the firm is optimistic about the Japanese stock market in 2024, there are still risks worth watching.
Jim Caron stated that it is advisable to moderately increase stock holdings this year and reduce exposure to long-duration bonds to help achieve a more stable overall performance. The firm plans to adjust its strategy by reducing exposure to short-term bonds and cash. Jim Caron pointed out that the initial valuations of global bonds this year are attractive, and it is crucial for a balanced investment portfolio that the stock-bond correlation is expected to decrease in the coming year.
Morgan Stanley Asset Management stated that the debate in the market this year still revolves around the risks posed by monetary policy. The firm agrees that there are downside risks in the market, but as economic growth obstacles gradually diminish, growth risks will further decrease if benign disinflation continues to be sustained.
In terms of inflation, Jim Caron expects the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) in the United States to decrease from 3.5% to below the expected consensus of 2.6% by the end of 2024. Additionally, it is anticipated that the Eurozone will quickly enter into disinflation, as the pressure on core inflation in the Eurozone seems to mainly come from external factors, with imported inflation intensifying due to the energy shock in 2022. As these factors fade or reverse, the firm expects inflation rates to fall back to 2%.