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BCT: The Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in the second quarter, and MPF can gradually increase the proportion of stock investments.
Chen Jiahong suggested that as beneficiaries are about to enter a rate-cutting cycle, they can gradually increase the proportion of stocks in their investment portfolios, especially increasing exposure to the stock markets of the United States, Japan, and Asia.
Mr. Chen Jiahong, Investment Director of the BCT Group, predicts that core inflation in the United States will continue to slow down this year, and the Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates in the second quarter. A rate cut of 3-4 times within the year would be an ideal signal for the market. Mr. Chen suggests that Trillions of MPF investments should adopt a balanced strategy of stock and bond investments in the next 12 months, continuing to hold government bonds of developed countries and high-rated corporate bonds. As the rate cut cycle approaches, gradually increasing the proportion of stocks in the investment portfolio, especially in the stock markets of the United States, Japan, and Asia. Mr. Chen pointed out that during a rate cut cycle, stocks are not expected to perform poorly unless there are unexpected events or a deep economic recession. He recommends prioritizing markets in North America and Japan. When asked about investing in the current US stock market, Mr. Chen stated that last year, the market was mainly driven by the so-called Magnificent 7, the 7 largest tech stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Google parent company Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, and Facebook parent company Meta Platforms). With the upcoming rate cut cycle, the remaining 493 stocks in the S&P 500 index are expected to benefit, especially in sectors like non-discretionary consumer goods, energy, and utilities. Since 2021, global fund managers have been reducing their holdings in Hong Kong A shares but have not completely withdrawn. Fund managers are still adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards this. Mr. Chen believes that the Hong Kong A stock market is not always going to be difficult. If Trillions of MPF members have invested heavily in Hong Kong A stocks at high levels, he does not recommend reducing positions at the current low levels. Trillions of MPF is for long-term investment, and deep-seated issues may change in the next one or two years. Members are advised to continue holding relevant funds and use new contributions for global investments. The BCT Group, composed of BCT Financial Limited (BCTF) and BCT Trust Limited (BCTC), serves as the sponsor and distributor of Trillions of MPF/Occupational Retirement Schemes. BCTF prioritizes digital services, offering excellent customer service, investment planning services, and investment education. BCTC provides trust, administrative, and trustee services for retirement schemes in Hong Kong and internationally, as well as global investment funds, qualified foreign institutional investor funds, and RMB funds.
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