Pulaisi: Asia will enter a loose cycle in the second half of the year, or become an attractive market again.

2024-01-31 11:23

Zhitongcaijing
Puriscos Emerging Market Bond Strategy Portfolio Manager Guan Zhiling said that Asia is expected to enter a loose monetary policy cycle in the second half of the year, and Asia may become an attractive market again, with China adjusting its policies to support growth prospects.
Zhi Ling Guan, the portfolio manager of the Purview Emerging Market Bond Strategy, said that he expects Asia to enter a loose monetary policy cycle in the second half of the year, making Asia an attractive market once again, with China adjusting policies to support growth prospects.
Guan pointed out that he believes the Fed's interest rate hiking cycle has come to an end. The market's focus has now shifted to when the Fed will ease its policy, as well as the extent of the policy easing. Another focus of the market is how long the Fed will maintain high interest rates. With inflation beginning to cool down, fixed income investments are expected to diversify risks in investment portfolios and help offset the potential negative impact of adverse environments on risk assets.
It is believed that inflation is showing a sustained cooling trend. Labor supply around the world is steadily improving, the pace of wage increases is slowing down, and as a result, inflationary pressures are stabilizing. Many emerging market countries (such as Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia in Latin America) hiked interest rates significantly early in this inflation cycle. However, Asian countries do not need to raise rates significantly due to weaker fiscal stimulus and lower inflation pressures. Additionally, Latin American countries are more easily influenced by the Fed's decisions, so Asian countries are slightly delayed in easing cycles. Looking ahead, it is expected that Asian countries will wait for clearer actions from the Fed until the second half of 2024 to begin the easing cycle.
The profit outlook for emerging market companies remains robust, with corporate income and profit margins expected to continue growing. Real personal income is also expected to increase, and a stable labor market and rising wealth effects will continue to drive consumption, particularly in the first half of 2024. Despite rising core interest rates, emerging fixed income markets are currently performing particularly well. Given the attractiveness of yields and expectations of rate cuts, this asset class may unleash significant return potential in 2024.
Guan emphasizes that as China enters a stable growth trajectory and with sustained robust growth in South Asia and Southeast Asia, Asia is expected to regain its position as an attractive investment market. Several populous countries in Asia still have resilience, providing support for growth prospects in the region. Additionally, with relatively mild inflation pressures within the region, the fiscal impulse of Asian countries is also weak.
Guan believes that China's policy adjustments to support economic development are expected to bolster growth prospects. The Chinese government is committed to changing the drivers of economic growth from traditional industries such as infrastructure and real estate to advanced technology and consumption, a process that will be gradual and require time.