JP Morgan Asset Management: Optimistic about the potential for stocks and fixed income to outperform cash this year.

2024-02-01 11:00

Zhitongcaijing
Morgan Asset Management's Chief Market Strategist for Asia-Pacific, Xu Changtai, said that, as widely expected, the FOMC voted to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 5.25%-5.50%.
Morgan Asset Management's Chief Market Strategist for the Asia-Pacific region, Xu Changtai, stated that as widely expected, the FOMC voted to keep the federal funds rate unchanged in the target range of 5.25%-5.50%. Morgan Asset Management remains optimistic about the potential for stocks and fixed income to outperform cash this year. It pointed out that when the Fed cuts interest rates as a preventive measure for a "soft landing" rather than in response to a financial crisis or severe recession, both stocks and bonds can generate positive returns.
Xu Changtai said that the language in the statement has been significantly adjusted, indicating that although the committee still leans towards cutting rates, it may not immediately start easing policies as expected by the market. The statement acknowledges that economic activity is proceeding at a healthy pace following strong growth in the fourth quarter of last year and resilient employment data, and emphasizes that although inflation has "eased somewhat over the past year," it is still relatively high. In other areas, the statement removes text about tight credit and financial conditions pressuring economic activity, which may be an acknowledgment of the relaxation of financial conditions in the fourth quarter of last year.
Xu Changtai pointed out that it is notable that the statement suggests the committee's next step will be a rate cut. Nevertheless, the text explicitly states that the committee believes it is appropriate to lower the target range until inflation remains continuously below 2%. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized that recent data leads him to believe that the likelihood of a rate cut in March is slim, indicating that if economic growth remains strong and the labor market remains tight, the Fed will approach rate cuts cautiously.
Considering the potential strength of the economy and the apparent ability of the labor market to withstand rising rates, Xu Changtai stated that the Fed remains more focused on its inflation mandate rather than the job market. The risk balance seems to be leaning towards inflation persisting rather than the economy falling into a recession.
Due to the delay in rate cuts relative to market expectations, US stocks were sold off. Xu Changtai believes that this may also set a cautious tone for Asian stock markets this morning. However, Morgan Asset Management remains optimistic about the potential for stocks and fixed income to outperform cash this year. History has shown that when the Fed cuts rates as a preventive measure for a "soft landing" rather than in response to a financial crisis or severe recession, both stocks and bonds can generate positive returns.
He stated that because Morgan Asset Management still believes that the US is most likely to achieve a "soft landing," investors should continue to invest. As for stocks, Morgan Asset Management maintains a constructive view on the US and Asian markets. In terms of fixed income, government bonds from developed markets offer the most stable returns, whether the US economy sees a "soft landing" or a "hard landing." However, considering the yield levels of corporate bonds, the bank believes that investors can also obtain lucrative returns from corporate credit.