Shang Bo Investment: The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in advance, and the focus remains on lowering the inflation rate to 2%.

2024-02-01 19:36

Zhitongcaijing
Shang Bo Investment Management's Co-Chief Investment Officer and Managing Director, Jeff Klingelhofer, stated that the Federal Reserve will not be as proactive in cutting interest rates, but will instead wait for a significant decline in data before taking action.
Recently, Jeff Klingelhofer, Co-Investment Director and Managing Director of Shangbo Investment Management, stated that the Federal Reserve will no longer be as proactive in cutting interest rates, but will wait for data to significantly decline before taking action. Pre-emptive rate cuts are not the Federal Reserve's usual style unless inflation is declining or the labor market is not significantly weakening. While the market generally expects the Fed to maintain interest rates, it is worth noting that the Fed has abandoned its tightening policy. From this perspective, it can be reasonably assumed that rate cuts are being considered, although the likelihood of a rate cut in March is still low. Currently, bringing the inflation rate down to the Fed's 2% target remains a focus.
Klingelhofer stated that there is a delicate balance between the unemployment rate and the 2% inflation target in the long term, and the Fed has indicated that 2% is a symmetric target. Data that has been released so far indicates that although the economy has cooled down, it still remains robust and resilient. The Fed will continue to monitor two risks: how long inflation will persist, and whether the inflation rate will significantly fall below the 2% target.
Currently, the market debate has shifted from "Will the Fed really cut interest rates" to "Will they take action earlier and more slowly, or later but more aggressively".