logo
Login
Register
Schroders Investment: Investment Deployment Strategy Before the US Election
Schroder Investment Management stated in a post that the volatility in the financial markets is likely to continue to rise leading up to the US presidential and congressional elections in November.
On February 7th, Schroders' global investment article stated that by the end of 2024, the United States will hold a presidential election, with Biden and Trump likely competing for the presidency again this year. Both parties will also vie for control of the Senate, and the seats in the House of Representatives will be up for reelection. Therefore, the volatility in the financial markets is likely to continue to rise leading up to the US presidential and congressional elections in November. It is worth noting that the current US elections are in a deadlock situation, with neither party having a clear advantage, which historically has a positive impact on the financial markets. If the US presidential and congressional results end up showing a divided landscape, there will be negotiations between the President and Congress to gain support, reducing the likelihood of extreme policies, and leading to more stability. This can reduce the uncertainty caused by extreme policies in the financial markets. Although the outcome of the US presidential election is difficult to predict, from a fundamental perspective, there are still many investment opportunities worth noting in the financial markets in 2024. Regarding US stocks, the S&P 500 index is currently close to historical highs, and whether it can continue to rise this year depends on two factors: first, whether the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will release more liquidity to support the market, and second, whether the US economy can achieve a soft landing. In terms of bonds, in recent years, global inflation and interest rates have remained high, making previously effective investment approaches potentially less suitable going forward. From a diversified asset allocation perspective, investors can gradually increase their bond investments based on expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024. If inflation peaks, rate cuts are likely to become a trend, and from the perspective of risk asset returns, bonds may be more attractive than stocks, providing investors with more ideal returns and stable income sources. Schroders' global investment believes that US government bonds, investment-grade corporate bonds, as well as global convertible bonds and securitized credit assets are good choices. Currently, Schroders' global investment has a positive view on US and Asian investment-grade bonds, as the corporate profitability and fundamentals in the US and Asia are stable, and with the possibility of a shift in the monetary policy, US and Asian investment-grade bonds can provide an average return of 5%-6% for investors. Additionally, if interest rates fall this year, it will also benefit bond prices. With changes in the macroeconomic environment, there are signs of a decline in US interest rates, the strong US dollar may gradually weaken with interest rate cuts, and emerging markets are expected to perform well. In addition to benefiting from the potential decline in US interest rates, emerging markets have maintained moderate inflation, and even have room for rate cuts, further benefitting the local bond markets. Looking at the main growth drivers for the next decade, Schroders' global investment believes that in hindsight of 2023, the upward trend in US stocks mainly came from the "seven giants" in technology. Given the increasing valuations of tech stocks, it is not ruled out that investors may profit, leading to a correction in tech stock valuations, hence Schroders' global investment has shifted its short-term view on US tech stocks to neutral. However, in the medium to long term, if artificial intelligence continues to be a trend in the tech industry, it will benefit US tech stocks and the upward momentum will be more sustainable. Additionally, some market trends will become the main growth drivers in the next decade. Globally high-growth companies with high operating profit margins and ample free cash flow (especially US tech companies) can provide opportunities for capital appreciation. Quality dividend-paying companies with stable businesses and attractive valuations, as well as sectors benefiting from a decline in inflation, are also expected to perform well. Schroders' global investment suggests that investors should pay attention to the financial market conditions leading up to the November US elections, as well as the significant uncertainty brought about by geopolitical risks. It is best for investors to adhere to the principles of diversified investments, and in addition to stocks and bonds, consider using commodities like gold and alternative asset classes to diversify risks.
Swiss Pictet Asset Management: Stock market presents strategic investment opportunities, raises global stocks to "overweight" position.
Central Huijin sets the tone! Several index ETF funds show significant volume increases, with Huatai Bairui Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 ETF reaching a single-day turnover of over 6.5 billion.
Customer Service
Add the WeCom