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Schroder Investment: Global stock markets may have the opportunity to rise further, optimistic about European emerging market bonds.
Johanna Kyrklund, Chief Investment Officer and Co-Head of Multi-Asset Investments at Schroders, stated that in a volatile year for financial markets, it is crucial to maintain investments as global market dynamics may change rapidly.
Schroders Global Chief Investment Officer and Co-Head of Investment Johanna Kyrklund pointed out that in a year of financial market volatility and uncertainty, it is crucial to maintain investments as global market dynamics may change rapidly. In the final weeks of 2023, investors have been changing their investment strategies to align with expectations of global central bank rate cuts, leading to strong financial market performance and an increase in asset valuations. However, by 2024, it is expected that many different events will occur globally, reshaping the investment landscape. Schroders Global Investments has highlighted some events that investors have been keeping an eye on, such as presidential elections taking place around the world this year, with the most important being the US presidential election on November 5th. Other events that are difficult to predict include disruptions in the Red Sea shipping and how Western countries will respond. It is hard to anticipate how current situations will develop, whether conflicts will escalate or involve more countries. Overall, this presents investors with a complex and occasionally worrisome environment. It is worth noting that not all events in 2024 will have a significant impact on financial markets. While the US presidential election is important, not every election will be as crucial. For investors, a practical approach is to focus on understanding how different fiscal policies and geopolitical events will bring about different investment risks and opportunities. For example, in fixed income, the global economy is still slowing down, which is favorable for bonds, but with the US election approaching, attention needs to be paid to long-term changes in yield curves. Given the US dollar's status as an international reserve currency, the US has the ability to maintain large fiscal deficits. However, there are signs that presidential candidates will spend lavishly, which could lead to impatience in financial markets and increased volatility in long-term bonds. In contrast, Europe's fiscal policies are more conservative, providing support for local bonds. Similarly, in emerging markets, many countries are implementing traditional monetary policies, keeping their bond markets in good shape, thus presenting good prospects for emerging market bonds denominated in local currency. Compared to bonds, global stocks have not quickly adjusted to rate cut expectations like bonds have. While stock valuations have increased, they have not reached extreme levels. In 2023, most of the focus in the stock market has been on the "Magnificent Seven" of US tech stocks, which are profit-driven. Global stock markets may have the opportunity to further rise, which is particularly important for investors currently holding cash. Schroders Global Investments recently analyzed the investment returns of 22 interest rate reduction cycles since 1929, data showing that the average return on US stocks in the 12 months following the first rate cut is 11%.
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