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Wisdom Asset Outlook: Emerging market stock valuations are on the high side, and the rapid rise in gold prices will continue to adjust.
With signs of stability emerging in the Middle East and the Red Sea, gold will continue to face some pressure. However, in the medium to long term, this asset class remains an ideal tool for hedging geopolitical risks.
Recently, Kelly, chief investment officer of Welli Fund, published a outlook on diversified assets. She pointed out that the United States may avoid an economic recession due to strong economic data and job market, combined with ongoing improvements in domestic economies of emerging markets, leading to continued growth in emerging markets, although valuations are somewhat high. As for gold, the market strongly expects interest rate cuts this year, causing the price of gold to adjust after breaking historical highs. This rally has been relatively high, but considering the high absolute interest rates, a market adjustment is imminent. She continued by mentioning that with signs of stability in the Middle East and the Red Sea, gold will continue to face some pressure. However, in the medium to long term, this asset class remains an ideal tool for hedging geopolitical risks. In terms of Asia stocks (excluding Japan), as market adjustments build expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, US Treasury yields rise and the US dollar strengthens. India is in a structural growth cycle benefiting from a strong macro environment and large budgets for infrastructure. As valuations continue to rise, the rally in other markets temporarily halts. Regarding Japan, after the January meeting of the Bank of Japan, expectations for the end of negative interest rate policies and yield curve control have been pushed back to April or July. Wage reforms are ongoing, with more companies raising wages. As wage inflation may become a sustained trend, the Bank of Japan will continue to face pressure to adjust monetary policy. On the other hand, corporate profit growth remains strong, with more companies outperforming expectations and raising guidance, and corporate governance reforms continue to make good progress. Asian investment grade bonds continue to attract inflows due to attractive yield levels and negative net issuance, keeping credit spreads stable at narrow levels. The Asian high yield bond market has become more active. There are signs that some high yield bond issuers are returning to the market after a long pause, which is a healthy development for the Asian high yield bond market. In addition, emerging market bond spreads have further narrowed, but demand remains strong. Against the backdrop of a soft landing in the US economy, with continued improvement in the fundamental factors of emerging market bonds, emerging markets are expected to achieve stronger growth. However, Kelly also pointed out that market expectations for rate cuts are overly optimistic, and the market needs to continuously adjust excessively dovish expectations, so the yields of the three types of bonds mentioned above will continue to adjust. Finally, looking at diversified assets, Kelly pointed out that compared to traditional single asset or balanced portfolios, the volatility of diversified asset strategies is lower, but the correlation between risk assets such as stocks, credit, and commodities has recently increased sharply. In an environment of low interest rates, returns on diversified assets have become the main source of investors' returns.
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