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American capital group: it is now appropriate to deploy fixed income assets to lock in high yields and be optimistic about the medical and AI sectors.
He emphasized that although it is unknown when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, he believes that current interest rates have peaked. He suggests that investors should deploy in the fixed income market now to lock in higher yields.
Harry Phinney, Investment Director (Fixed Income) at the American Capital Group, believes that the actions of the Federal Reserve this year have the potential to disappoint the market. He mentioned that originally, the market expected the Fed to start cutting interest rates in March, but the latest forecast has pushed this back to June. If the Fed's intention to cut rates is not in response to an economic recession, the magnitude of the rate cut may be smaller than expected by the market, ultimately leading to volatility in the capital markets. He emphasized that although it is unknown when the Fed will cut rates, he believes that current interest rates have peaked, and he advises investors to deploy in the fixed income market at the moment to lock in higher yields. Harry Phinney pointed out that the current inflation level in the United States, which is around 3.5%, still faces certain challenges in returning to the central bank's target of around 2%. This is due to the better-than-expected performance of the labor market in the United States, as well as strong consumer momentum, which in turn drives broader economic growth. He believes that the Fed and the European Central Bank must make decisions on whether to take the risk of economic recession to lower inflation to the target level or allow inflation to remain at a higher level. Lee Lok-wu, Investment Director (Equities) at the American Capital Group, mentioned that when interest rates have peaked in the past, stocks have performed well. Global stocks have risen by 14% in the past 12 months, and out of the 11 sectors in the MSCI stock index, 8 sectors recorded positive profits last year, supporting the strength of the stock market. Excluding the "Big Seven" stocks in the US with a price-to-earnings ratio of around 30, the average price-to-earnings ratio for the remaining 493 stocks in the S&P 500 is 20 times, which is at a reasonable level supported by corporate profits. When asked if it is too late to invest in the stock market now, Lee Lok-wu responded by referring to the trend of the MSCI World Index in the years 2022-2023. He mentioned that the current level is only returning to the level of two years ago, and considering the different positive factors for the stock market this year, he believes that entering the stock market at this stage is not too late. Lee Lok-wu is optimistic about investment opportunities in the healthcare sector, especially in the development of mRNA vaccines beyond the treatment of the novel coronavirus, as well as in the treatment of cancer, Alzheimer's disease, and other cutting-edge drugs. He also believes that there are many investment opportunities in the concept of artificial intelligence, involving four levels: underlying computing power, infrastructure construction, AI models, and applications. He expects that semiconductor, cloud services and data centers, and big data platforms will all benefit from this. Regarding emerging markets, Lee Lok-ming believes that the Chinese market is worth investing in, especially in the service sector, including Macau gaming, tourism, and aviation stocks. On the other hand, there has been a change in the official stance on regulation of the gaming industry, making gaming stocks worth watching. In addition, the concept of "reshaping globalization" presents opportunities for other emerging markets, as companies are restructuring their supply chains, such as moving factories closer to customers to reduce geopolitical risks. India is expected to benefit from the "China Plus One" strategy trend.
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