Purview: It is expected that the Bank of Japan will change its policy framework in April, and may not raise interest rates again within the year after ending negative interest rates.

2024-03-12 11:13

Zhitongcaijing
If the global economic growth deteriorates faster than expected, central banks around the world will be forced to significantly reduce interest rates. It is widely expected that the Bank of Japan will maintain a policy rate of 0%.
Pulitzer Prize-winning International Economist Aadish Kumar commented on the policy direction of the Bank of Japan, stating that the Bank of Japan may amend its policy framework in April and change its current policy tools. The new framework will aim to enhance policy sustainability by slowing down the expansion of its balance sheet, increase flexibility in response to unexpected inflation spikes, and reduce the negative impact of unconventional tools. Additionally, due to weak economic activities and the possibility of unexpected inflation falling back, the Bank of Japan may not raise interest rates after ending negative interest rate policy this year.
Amending the policy framework in April is the basic expectation, as the Bank of Japan has the opportunity to convey greater confidence in achieving its inflation targets with the latest inflation forecasts.
Aadish Kumar expects the policy rate to rise to 0% and to remove the Yield Curve Control (YCC) target from the policy statement. To maintain control over long-term government bond yields in Japan, the Bank of Japan may retain the reference rate of 1.0% for 10-year Japanese government bonds. The Bank of Japan will also remain flexible, adjusting bond purchases according to yield fluctuations and speed. Moreover, authorities are expected to gradually reduce bond purchases in the coming months and eliminate forward guidance to increase policy flexibility.
Despite the pressure of structural wage growth, economic growth remains weak. Favorable factors such as the weakening yen, the reopening impact after the COVID-19 pandemic, and the rebound of the tourism industry are diminishing.
A decline in real income has led to weak domestic consumption in Japan, making it difficult for small and medium-sized enterprises to pass on higher costs, with an increase in bankruptcy cases and concerns for regional banks. Even with wage increases, employees are not jumping jobs for higher wages, raising doubts about sustainable wage growth. Recent inflation has eased, with significant price changes compared to the previous months, and factors pushing up inflation have also decreased.
Aadish Kumar pointed out that if domestic factors in Japan stimulate inflation, while the US and Eurozone achieve a soft economic landing, the policies of the Bank of Japan may differ from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Some market observers have a more hawkish view on Japanese monetary policy, expecting direct impacts from the "Spring Struggles" labor negotiations, structural labor supply shortages due to an aging population, and expectations of stable participation of women and elderly workers to push up wages in the short term. If capital expenditure increases and real income growth, growth expectations may be boosted, potentially exacerbating domestic inflation pressure in Japan.
However, if global economic growth deteriorates faster than expected and central banks are forced to significantly cut interest rates, it is widely expected that the Bank of Japan will maintain a 0% policy rate.