On March 15th, Yu Xueyu, Managing Director of Schroders Global Investment Asia, wrote that based on current economic data, Schroders Global Investment believes that the probability of a "soft landing" for the global economy is increasing. Currently, as inflation continues to decline, central banks around the world have begun to change their policy stance, no longer mentioning concerns about rising interest rates, but instead discussing the risks of interest rate cuts. The expectation for interest rate cuts in financial markets is expected to continue until 2024. However, there are still doubts and different opinions in investment markets regarding the extent of monetary policy easing. Schroders Global Investment pointed out that investors and economists have previously suggested that policymakers in various countries need to induce an economic recession to ease inflation pressures. However, in the past year, inflation has been decreasing and continually falling back to the target inflation levels of major central banks. At the same time, even with interest rate hikes exceeding market expectations, the economy has indeed outperformed the original expectations of financial markets. The financial markets seem to be entering an "ideal soft landing scenario", where inflation is slowing down, while economic activity is continuing to expand gradually and unemployment remains at low levels. Schroders Global Investment stated that the global economic outlook is becoming clearer. According to Schroders Global Investment's latest forecasts, the global GDP growth rate for 2024 has been raised from 2.2% to 2.6%, and the growth rate for 2025 has been raised from 2.2% to 2.7%. At the same time, it is expected that global inflation rates will decline from 4.4% in 2023 to 2.9% in 2024 (same as previous forecasts), and the inflation forecast for 2025 has been lowered from 3% to 2.5%. In the United States, the local economy and job market are strong, while inflation is continuing to decline. Despite a marginal decrease in new job positions, it is expected to remain healthy, benefiting overall consumer spending, and with inflation continuing to recede, consumer spending is also benefiting from improved real income. In general, a decrease in inflation is expected to lead the Federal Reserve to begin lowering interest rates this summer. Schroders Global Investment's baseline forecast shows that from now until the end of 2024, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by about 75 basis points, reflecting a higher expectation for a soft landing. The actual rate cut will depend on future economic data. The Eurozone has avoided a technical economic recession, but countries like Germany, a major manufacturing nation, are facing challenges. In the future, these countries have the opportunity to benefit from improving external prospects, while domestic demand is expected to gradually recover by 2024, prompting Schroders Global Investment to slightly raise its economic growth forecast. In addition, recent declines in inflation and interest rates are expected to support the recovery of household spending.