Hong Hao: The market is returning to fundamentals and maintaining the judgment that the A-share index will be between 3000-3500 points.

2024-03-15 21:12

Zhitongcaijing
Because the market is returning to fundamentals, he still insists on their original judgment, with the A-share market ranging from around 3000 to 3500 points, and the Hong Kong stock market ranging from approximately 16000 to 23000 points.
On March 7th, Hong Hao, Chief Economist of Sinomics Group, made a judgment on the A-share market that the market is returning to fundamentals. Therefore, he still adheres to their original judgment that the A-share range will be around 3000 to 3500 points, and the Hong Kong stock market will be between 16000 and 23000 points. Regarding the recent volatile trends of Bitcoin and gold, Hong Hao believes that the trends have not finished, especially for gold. Talking about the heated property market in Hong Kong after the "spicy withdraw", Hong Hao stated that rational judgment based on common sense is needed.
Regarding the US stock market, Hong Hao mentioned that the driving force of the US stock market's upward movement is stronger, and the probability of not landing this year is greater than the probability of landing, as their fiscal deficit rate is very high. It is likely that the trend of the US stock market makes people realize that fiscal efforts are actually very important.
In terms of liquidity, compared to their current inflation levels, the financial conditions of central banks worldwide are very loose, so liquidity is sufficient. The typical characteristic of sufficient liquidity is that everything is rising, because there is a lot of water in the pool, and even a big ship can float. So all these conditions tell us that the bubble in the US stock market, especially in AI, is rising.
Hong Hao believes that this market trend is not over yet. Many people tend to reflexively say they should go short when market prices rise rapidly because it has risen so much. But in a situation where liquidity is abundant, the fundamentals are very good, valuations are high but not at their highest, shorting can be very dangerous.
Regarding Bitcoin, Hong Hao believes that Bitcoin will fork next year, so its mining income will decrease. Excess reserves of the Federal Reserve are declining, while banking reserves are rising, thus the banking system's ability to create money is increasing. Therefore, the system has abundant liquidity, leading to gold breaking through $2100 last night, with Bitcoin around $67000 to $68000, but it is clear that especially the gold trend has not finished yet.
Hong Hao mentioned that the A-share market has surpassed 3000 points, while the Hong Kong stock market continues to hover above 16000 points. After the quantitative disruption passes, there may still be aftershocks. If some quantitative strategies can no longer continue, fund managers will need to come up with a new trading strategy to provide returns to investors, otherwise investors may redeem the original capital, all of which can disrupt the market's operation.
However, as the market returns to fundamentals, Hong Hao still adheres to the original judgment. The A-share range will be around 3000 to 3500 points, and the Hong Kong stock market will be between 16000 and 23000 points.