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East Asia United Prosperity Investment: It is expected that credit spreads will continue to narrow, bullish on Chinese technology, media, and telecommunications bonds.
The Chinese bond market is still resilient, attracting interest from investors and causing the credit spread of Chinese investment-grade bonds to narrow to historic levels.
East Asia United Prosperity Investment stated that due to the early statement by the Federal Reserve that changes in monetary policy in March are premature, coupled with the stable performance of the U.S. economy, the market has lowered its expectations for interest rate cuts this year from over 1.4% to 0.8%, leading to a 33 basis point surge in the yield of the ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds in February. The credit spread of investment-grade corporate bonds in Asia narrowed by 12 basis points, but due to the impact of the rising U.S. Treasury bond yields, returns remained flat. The Asian bond market remains stable, with some showing further improvement, and with issuers redeeming bonds, East Asia United Prosperity Investment expects the credit spread to continue to narrow. East Asia United Prosperity Investment pointed out that, continuing the trend from last year, South Korea, Japan, and China will continue to be the major issuers of positive impact bonds this year. Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's expects the issuance of positive impact bonds in the Asia-Pacific region, including green bonds, social responsibility bonds, and sustainable development bonds, to increase by about 10%. Most of South Korea's positive impact bonds come from social responsibility bonds issued by state-owned real estate and banks. These bonds raise funds to address social housing issues and help low-income and middle-income families obtain housing loans. In addition to South Korean bank and real estate bonds, the investment team also sees potential in other local investment-grade bonds, such as electric vehicle battery manufacturers. Overall, the valuation of South Korean investment-grade bonds is reasonable, the yield is attractive, and the foundation is solid. East Asia United Prosperity Investment expects that as the local onshore bond market further expands, the supply of offshore dollar bonds may decrease, providing technical support to the market. Outside of South Korea, Japan is another major issuer of positive impact bonds in Asia. Standard & Poor's data shows that green bonds accounted for about 40% of Japan's total issuance last year, followed by social responsibility bonds at 34%. The Japanese government issued climate transition bonds for the first time, and with other government agencies promoting initiatives, such as the recent issuance of green bonds by the Osaka City government, this will help drive investor interest in Japan's positive impact bonds. The investment team believes that there are investment opportunities in Japan's investment-grade bonds, especially green bonds issued by large banks. To align with government policies, the local financial sector has been allocating resources to promote domestic carbon reduction projects, striving to achieve net zero emissions in Japan by 2050. It is worth noting that the Chinese bond market remains strong, attracting investor interest, and narrowing the credit spread of Chinese investment-grade bonds to historical levels. The investment team continues to favor high-beta Chinese technology, media, and telecommunications bonds, as they offer higher yields compared to other companies with similar credit fundamentals, as well as reasonable valuations and decreasing industry regulatory risks.
Schroder Investment: Interest rates will remain high in the long term, and it is advisable to diversify investments into different assets.
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