Franck Dixmier, Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at Allianz Investment, commented before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, indicating that due to continued US inflation, it is expected that the Fed will not cut interest rates. Recent statements by Fed Chairman Powell suggest a possibility of a shift towards looser policies at a later time in 2024. The latest retail sales data in the US fell below expectations, and Allianz believes that the decrease in demand reflects an economic slowdown, which will be a decisive factor in price trends in the coming months and may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates at the June meeting. He stated that since the beginning of this year, expectations for rate cuts by central banks around the world have been significantly lowered, causing increased volatility in interest rate markets. However, the upcoming Fed meeting is unlikely to provide investors with any substantial new information. The latest data released in the US confirms that the current environment is not conducive to a rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at the upcoming meeting. Although economic activity in the US is slowing down, it still maintains some resilience, especially in terms of new job creation. Inflation continues to remain at high levels, far from the central bank's 2% target. Consumer prices in February unexpectedly rose 3.2% year-on-year, while in January it rose by 3.1% year-on-year; core inflation rose 0.4% month-on-month (same as January, expected 0.3%), and the year-on-year growth rate decreased slightly to 3.8% (3.9% in January, expected 3.7%). The producer price index in February exceeded expectations, further confirming the difficulty of lowering the inflation rate to the 2% target. As emphasized by the Fed at the FOMC press conference in January, the Fed needs more time to observe favorable inflation data in order to ensure that a rate cut is necessary. Therefore, it is believed that a rate cut is still premature. Allianz Investments stated that in this context, the Fed must maintain a tight monetary policy in the short term, but Fed Chairman Powell's recent statements indicate an open attitude towards looser policies. Powell stated during a Senate hearing on March 7 that the Fed is increasingly confident in ensuring prices will fluctuate around the 2% level, thereby lowering interest rates. He also added that a rate cut within 2024 is appropriate. Therefore, inflation data in the coming weeks will play a decisive role in confirming market expectations, and currently the market has delayed expectations for the first rate cut to July. Allianz expects that when the economic slowdown leads to a fall in prices, the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time in June.