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Allianz Investment: We should not only focus on the risks of the Middle East situation, but also take advantage of market oversold opportunities.
The current investment market confirms the logic of "risk" and "opportunity" coexisting.
The Middle East conflict continues to be tense, causing fluctuations in the global financial markets. Greg Hirt, Chief Investment Officer of Allianz Global Investors global multi-asset, believes that unlike past conflicts involving Iran, the current Middle East conflict has suddenly become globally interconnected. The investment market currently reflects the logic of "risk" and "opportunity" coexisting, and he suggests that now is a good time to act if you have cash reserves. Drawing from historical experience, he points out that external shocks often bring good market entry opportunities, allowing people to re-examine assets or regions that were previously considered attractive. He anticipates that the market will move towards a more positive direction in the next two to three weeks, therefore, it is important not only to focus on the risks but also to take advantage of oversold market opportunities and reallocate investment targets that were previously considered too expensive. He stated that in the first two weeks, the market will have a clearer view of Iran's capabilities and their ability to withstand longer-term impacts. The market will also see how quickly the United States hopes to find a solution and how quickly they are prepared to return to the negotiating table. He mentioned that although Trump claims he will not negotiate, based on information from various channels, it seems that others are willing to discuss. Geopolitical tensions have resulted in oil prices rising above $100. Greg Hirt stated that as market volatility and risk increases, oil prices rise, but he is more concerned about the trend of 6 to 12-month oil futures contracts. A greater fluctuation in the 12-month oil futures contract may indicate that the market is beginning to expect the Middle East conflict to last longer. However, he believes that the current global oil supply is surplus, so increasing production immediately is unnecessary. Furthermore, most countries have sufficient oil reserves, and the speed of oil production and distribution is very fast. If supply needs to catch up with demand, it can quickly be completed. In addition, he emphasized that he pays more attention to natural gas prices compared to oil. "Natural gas prices are relatively more sticky, rising and falling at a slower pace, which will largely affect long-term inflation expectations. In the long run, its impact on global prices is far greater than oil, so I believe that natural gas prices are the focus of central banks worldwide." Regarding gold prices, Greg Hirt stated that for the past two and a half years, he has been optimistic about gold. This is mainly due to the slow progress of the long-term de-dollarization process, with central banks around the world increasing their gold reserves. However, currently there is no currency that can replace the dollar. After a significant increase in gold prices, the gap between the price and fundamental factors has widened, so he has slightly reduced his positive outlook on gold.
Hong Kong Monetary Authority: Actively-managed ETFs may be included in the MPF fund's permitted investment categories but not exceed 10% of the fund's net asset value.
Barclays: It is expected that there is a 10% chance that Brent crude oil will reach $150 before the end of the month.
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