The Federal Reserve, as expected by the market, maintained its policy interest rate unchanged, with the federal funds rate target staying at 3.50%-3.75%. According to Fidelity International, the overall change in the government's policy statement is limited, but it explicitly points out that the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased, leading to a simultaneous increase in uncertainty in inflation and employment prospects. Max Stainton, Senior Global Macro Strategy Strategist at Fidelity International, stated that the key to the interest rate outlook this year will largely depend on the situation in the Middle East and its impact on energy prices. In a base scenario, if oil prices remain in the higher range of $90 to $110 per barrel, the Federal Reserve may extend its wait-and-see approach, increasing the threshold for initiating interest rate cuts in the short term. However, this scenario is not enough to trigger a new rate hike cycle, as its drag on economic growth is still manageable, and the impact of oil prices on prices tends to be one-off. However, if oil prices rise above $120 per barrel and drive up transportation and commodity prices again, it will strengthen the policy stance of maintaining interest rates at a higher level and also increase the risk of weakening demand in the second half of the year or even economic recession. Overall, if the base scenario develops as expected, the Federal Reserve may still cut interest rates one to two times this year. However, it is important to note that the situation in the Middle East is evolving rapidly, with signs of escalation after attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure. If this situation continues, the possibility of rate cuts this year will be almost completely ruled out. Fidelity pointed out that the growth momentum of the major global economies continues, with the U.S. showing particularly strong performance. Driven by fiscal spending and AI investment demand, the U.S. economic growth momentum remains resilient. Overall, the global macro cycle is still in the expansion stage, but with increasing geopolitical fragmentation and escalating trade tensions, economic divergences between regions are gradually widening. In this context, Fidelity maintains a positive view on the stock market and has adopted a more constructive attitude towards government bonds. With inflation continuing to cool and gradually coming under control, government bonds are once again demonstrating a certain level of diversification effect; meanwhile, in asset allocation, the importance of maintaining selectivity is still emphasized. As geopolitical tensions rise, expectations for short-term market volatility are expected to increase. However, in the medium to long term, long-term technology trends such as artificial intelligence, combined with macroeconomic fundamentals for stability, will continue to be key drivers of the stock market. With companies continuing to show resilience in their fundamentals, investors can pursue steady total returns by positioning themselves in global high-quality companies. On the other hand, considering the increased correlation between stocks and bonds, it is recommended to adopt a global balanced strategy that includes alternative assets and commodities to participate more flexibly in market opportunities.