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Purvis: Inflation remains high, Fed's path unclear, investment strategy should not be disrupted by short-term fluctuations.
Recent market fluctuations reflect more on position adjustments rather than fundamental changes in the macroeconomic fundamentals.
In recent market volatility is intensifying, forcing investors to re-examine the macro environment and reassess the role of fixed income in their investment portfolios. Arif Husain, Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income at PIMCO Global, points out that investors should not focus too much on short-term geopolitical shocks. The recent market volatility is more reflective of positioning adjustments rather than a fundamental change in the macroeconomic backdrop. In fact, the core driving factors that existed before the conflict erupted remain unchanged, including inflationary pressures and worsening fiscal deficits. In this context, investors should not be distracted by short-term fluctuations and focus on the changes in these structural factors in the next 6 to 12 months. He also warns that in recent years, the market's traditional perception of safe haven assets is being challenged. Government bonds, which were once seen as a "safe harbor," have not been able to provide stable hedging during market pressure periods, and the correlation between different assets has become increasingly unpredictable. In this environment, investment opportunities are more likely to come from relative value between countries and sectors, rather than a one-way bet, reflecting increasing differentiation in the global markets. Taking the US dollar as an example, Husain points out that its recent strength does not necessarily purely reflect safe haven demand, but is driven to a greater extent by positioning and commodity factors (such as oil prices denominated in dollars). On a more fundamental level, the core factors affecting the dollar have not changed, and the medium to long-term outlook for the dollar remains biased towards weakness. Adam Marden, Co-Portfolio Manager of PIMCO Global Bond Strategies, shares his views on inflation prospects, Federal Reserve policy, and market structure changes. Regarding inflation, Marden is cautious about the idea of "artificial intelligence having a deflationary effect." He believes that while AI may improve productivity in the long run, there are no signs of lowering inflation in the short term, and it may actually contribute to upward pressure on interest rates by driving real economic growth and increasing input costs (such as a significant increase in memory prices). In terms of monetary policy, he points out that there is still uncertainty in the path of Federal Reserve policy, and future decisions will continue to depend on market conditions and economic data. If market volatility persists, it is not ruled out that the Federal Reserve may lean towards supporting the market rather than reducing its balance sheet. Looking ahead in the next 6 to 12 months, he expects global interest rate curves to exhibit a "bear flattening." In recent years, factors driven by China that have lowered global inflation are fading away, while rising oil prices are bringing inflationary pressures. In this scenario, the possibility of upward interest rates along with a flattening curve increases, posing greater challenges for major central banks.
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Hong Kong Stock Exchange: E Fund Biomedical ETF (03186) will be available for trading and approved for inclusion in the list of designated securities for short selling starting March 23rd.
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