3162010%80323440043004200410024440022816% ; 3FOMC2026 () ETFInstead of stabilizing, it continued to decline further.An investor said, "I thought there would be support after a little drop, but it turns out that the lower limit is being refreshed every day"; Another person bluntly stated, "I used to think that a drop in gold is an opportunity, but now I realize that without liquidity and interest rate cooperation, the so-called support is not firm." The concentrated appearance of these emotions indicates that the habitual cognition of "buy on dips" that gold has formed in the past few years is facing a real challenge. In the past, every obvious pullback in gold could quickly attract bottom-fishing buyers because the market always believed there was long-term trend support behind it. However, this time is different, as investors are not facing a simple price pullback when buying in, but a short-term reevaluation of the entire pricing system. When "safe-haven assets" are constrained by interest rate expectations, and when high oil prices could suppress the performance of gold, many individual investors lose the certainty they had in their bottom-fishing experiences. The flow of funds has also turned into selling as the price drops. For example, on March 23, a total of 7 gold ETFs saw a net outflow of 2.231 billion yuan; considering the most recent week, the total net outflow reached 2.482 billion yuan. Specifically, Huaxin Gold ETF and Guotai Gold ETF had the largest outflow, with net outflows of 1.209 billion yuan and 435 million yuan on a single day, respectively; in the most recent week, Huaxin Gold ETF and Guotai Gold ETF had outflows of 1.853 billion yuan and 1.150 billion yuan, respectively. This phenomenon is also quite representative. On one hand, there are constantly people shouting "it's time to buy the dip" on social platforms; but on the other hand, the actual outflows seen in ETF funds reveal a real departure. To some extent, this also indicates that the current gold market is experiencing emotional stratification: some individual investors are still trying to understand the current decline with the experience of rising in the past few years, seeing the pullback as an opportunity; while a larger volume of funds is more concerned about whether the short-term macro environment is showing signs of a turning point, and would rather reduce their exposure until interest rates, the US dollar and liquidity pressure have eased. For the market, this divergence itself is one of the sources of increased gold price volatility. The more realistic issue is that when the confidence of individual investors in bottom-fishing is not validated by a price rebound, market sentiment often quickly shifts from optimistic to fragile. Many people bought gold before as a sense of security in an uncertain environment; but when gold itself becomes a source of volatility, this psychological gap is larger than for other assets. It is precisely because of this that the discussions triggered by the current decline in gold prices are not just about paper losses, but about the role of gold in the minds of ordinary investors, which is being pulled back from a safe and stable portfolio to a high-volatility trading asset. How do institutions view this? Not suitable for linear optimism in the short term, the logic of the medium and long term has not been completely broken From the perspective of institutions, the judgment of gold is clearly divided at the moment, but largely revolves around the same core: short-term pressure remains, and the logic of the medium and long term has not been completely refuted. A more cautious school of thought believes that the biggest pressure on gold at the moment comes from real interest rates and liquidity, rather than from geopolitical conflicts themselves. According to this logic, as long as energy prices remain high, inflation expectations will be difficult to cool rapidly, central bank easing space will also be limited, and gold will find it difficult to re-enter a smooth uptrend channel. Some institutional professionals also point out that in a period of rising global credit crunch pressure and intensified volatility in risk assets, gold is likely to continue to play the role of "being sold to cash out", at least until genuine easing signals appear, it is difficult to simply view it from a hedging logic. However, many industry insiders also warned that short-term pressure does not mean that the long-term foundation for gold allocation has collapsed. Regarding the long-term trend of gold, Ren Fei remains optimistic, first of all, the conflict between the US and Iran has gradually entered a stalemate, and it will be difficult for the United States and its allies to completely conquer Iran, and in the end, they may still be stuck in a cycle of negotiations, unable to demonstrate the past dominant power of the United States in the Middle East (such as sweeping Iraq in the 1990s), but rather accruing debt during this process, affecting their own credibility; Secondly, between raising and lowering interest rates, the United States may find it difficult to choose to raise interest rates, and may even have to lower interest rates to alleviate government debt interest payments and support AI development, so monetary policy will be difficult to tighten. Yongying Fund also stated that the long-term investment value and logic of gold and gold stocks have not significantly changed, and the short-term adjustment has actually increased the cost-effectiveness of investing in gold and gold stocks. Looking ahead, if the Strait of Hormuz successfully reopens, it will be beneficial for gold and gold stocks. On the one hand, the weakening of inflation expectations is conducive to monetary policy easing, which is favorable for the financial attributes of gold and the rebound of stock market risk appetite; on the other hand, the weakening of the US dollar's credibility after this event may provide long-term support for gold's credit attributes. In addition, regarding the question of whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, Yongying Fund believes that the influence of the White House's pressure from debt interest payments makes the demand for interest rate cuts clear, and therefore the pace of interest rate reduction due to declining inflation pressure will be delayed, but the possibility of a switch to raising interest rates is small. What is more worth noting is that the US February non-farm payrolls were lower than expected, the unemployment rate was higher than expected and the previous value, combined with a significant increase in oil prices boosting inflation, the US may enter a stagflation cycle, and gold has historically performed relatively well in stagflation cycles. Currently, many international financial institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, UBS, Deutsche Bank, and others all believe that gold is likely to break through a new high of $6,000. This article is reproduced from Caixin, GMTEight Editor: Chen Wenfang.