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Hui Fund: A, Hong Kong stocks' valuation has fallen back slightly below historical average levels, increasing attractiveness.
Both sides of the US-Iran conflict have reached a two-week ceasefire agreement, which is a positive development and has triggered a technical rebound in the market sentiment.
Hui Li Fund's Chief Investment Officer - Multi-Asset Investment Zhong Huixin stated that the ceasefire agreement reached between the US and Iran two weeks ago is a positive development, which has led to a technical rebound in market sentiment. However, major uncertainties still exist, including whether the Strait of Hormuz can fully resume operations and key issues such as potential agreement terms. However, she mentioned that market uncertainty may have peaked, and risk appetite is expected to gradually recover in the short term. In the last week of March this year, the market has already reflected expectations of interest rate hikes, with the 2-year US bond yield reaching 4% and the 10-year yield close to 4.5%, indicating that the market may have already reached a short-term low. Although oil prices are expected to remain higher than pre-US-Iran war levels in the short term, and the market needs to reevaluate risks such as inflation and economic growth, Zhong Huixin expects that reactions to relevant news will gradually cool down and refocus on fundamentals. However, market volatility is still expected to be higher than before the war. After the adjustment, valuations of A and Hong Kong stocks have fallen slightly below historical averages, making them more attractive. However, considering the weak profit prospects and cautious corporate guidance, this may limit the upside potential of the market. However, Zhong Huixin stated that as the market lowers its full-year profit expectations, any positive catalysts are likely to bring a more noticeable rebound to the stock market, and signs of stability in the real estate market will also support economic recovery.
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