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Oriental Harvest: Suggest finding local investment opportunities in emerging markets and Japan.
Oriental Patron Asset Management states that due to the economic cycle being more ideal than previously expected, the current view on developed market stocks is close to neutral. However, considering the current overvaluation, they are avoiding being overly optimistic.
On March 29th, Orient Huili Asset Management stated that due to the economic cycle being less ideal than previously expected, their current view on developed market equities is close to neutral. However, considering the high valuations at present, they are avoiding being overly optimistic and are looking for regional investment opportunities in emerging markets and Japan. The institution maintains a neutral stance on the United States. In terms of duration, Orient Huili remains cautious on Japan but bullish on the United States and Europe. Given the possibility of fiscal pressure and unexpected inflation trends, investors should consider actively managing duration. Additionally, a short-term strengthening of the US dollar could impact returns on emerging market bonds, so investors need to remain vigilant. Finally, in the face of geopolitical pressures, oil becomes an ideal hedge, with the potential for moderate price increases due to short-term supply tightness. In the fixed income sector, Orient Huili is slightly cautious on duration in Europe and Japan, but optimistic about the United States and global high-quality credit as inflation rates continue to decline. The institution closely monitors the European Central Bank's assessment of the region's economy and any signs of policy action taken by the central bank. In the UK, they are slightly optimistic due to pressure on the Bank of England to cut interest rates. Corporate credit continues to provide yield spreads, but liquidity considerations must be taken into account, especially in the high-yield bond category. Therefore, Orient Huili is bullish on US investment-grade bonds and even more so on EU investment-grade bonds. In the US, the institution is bullish on short-term credit and insurance-linked securities. Overall, they are cautiously optimistic about lower-rated high-yield bonds but see individual investment opportunities in non-cyclical industries with significant performance differences. Orient Huili points out that the recent performance of the US stock market is mainly driven by individual large stocks, increasing concentration risk. A similar situation is seen in Europe, although to a lesser extent. As the economic cycle progresses, the market is expected to focus more on earnings trends. The institution maintains a strict stock selection stance and is slightly cautious on the most expensive categories in the US and Europe in terms of valuation. However, any market anomalies regarding earnings and valuation also present opportunities to benefit from special themes. From a sectoral/regional perspective, they continue to be bullish on high-profit-margin quality companies, US value stocks, and Japan. Orient Huili also notes that as emerging market yields and inflation continue to decline, they are bullish on hard currency and local currency bonds, preferring high-yield bonds over investment-grade bonds. In terms of regions, the institution is bullish on Latin America, with a more cautious selection of Asian and European, Middle Eastern, and African countries. As expected, Latin America is seeing a plethora of special themes, such as Argentina. The institution also sees opportunities in stocks, especially in Asia (India, Indonesia, South Korea) and Latin America.
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