Standard Chartered: The situation in the Middle East will continue to dominate the market conditions. It is expected that the Hong Kong stock market will first decline and then rise in May.

2026-05-04 15:21

Zhitongcaijing
Zheng Zifeng claimed that the situation in the Middle East will continue to dominate the market conditions. The United States and Iran will eventually reach an agreement, but based on the assumption that the United States and Iran will not reach a consensus in the short term, it is expected that Hong Kong Stocks will show a trend of "falling first and then rising" in May.
Standard Chartered's North Asia Investment Director Zheng Zifeng said in a recent media interview that the situation in the Middle East will continue to dominate the market. He believes that the US and Iran will eventually reach an agreement, but in the short term, if no consensus is reached between the two parties, he expects the Hong Kong stock market to show a "fall followed by a rise" trend in May. He predicts that if there is no progress in the US-Iran negotiations in May, the Hang Seng Index may fall to the level of 24,000 to 25,000. However, if both parties are willing to negotiate, the Hang Seng Index may reach a level between 26,000 and 26,500. If there is a preliminary consensus, the Hang Seng Index may reach 26,800 to 27,500 points.
Zheng Zifeng also mentioned that short-term performance may not necessarily be the biggest catalyst for the Hong Kong stock market, but if guidance is slightly better than expected, it may lead to a more positive upward trend in the market.
In terms of investment, Zheng Zifeng suggests increasing holdings in energy-related high dividend stocks, as they are expected to benefit from higher oil prices. On the other hand, he recommends buying leading electric vehicle stocks on dips. These brands have been heavily invested overseas and will benefit in the long run from the increased demand for electric vehicles due to high oil prices, with profits from overseas sales higher than in mainland China. He also suggests long-term deployment in AI chip concepts, including direct investment in leading AI chip companies.
Regarding the recent strong performance of Asian stocks such as South Korean, Japanese, and Taiwanese stocks, Zheng Zifeng mentioned that Asian economies are relatively dependent on oil imports. If the Middle East issues are not resolved and the strait remains fully blocked, there will be greater pressure on Asian stock markets. However, China has a lower reliance on Middle Eastern oil, so the impact will be limited. With more international investors participating in the Hong Kong stock market, it is more influenced by macro news, and he is more optimistic about A-shares than Hong Kong stocks.
As for the US stock market, Zheng Zifeng believes that it is performing strongly not only due to artificial intelligence but also because the US is relatively less sensitive to energy shocks. With generally good first-quarter performance results, funds are still willing to be overweight on US stocks. However, caution should be taken when selecting sectors and individual stocks, especially in heavily traded technology stocks. If performance is not surprising and capital expenditures are shocking, there will be significant downward pressure. On the other hand, if companies provide better guidance and successfully leverage AI for returns, they can outperform their competitors.