Jingshun: The continued strong inflation trend in the US CPI may reduce the possibility of a rate cut by the Fed in June.

2024-04-11 16:01

Zhitongcaijing
Zhao Yaoting still believes that even if interest rates are not lowered, a scenario where the economy maintains strong growth is more favorable to risk assets than lowering interest rates but having weak economic growth and falling inflation.
Shigekuni Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) global market strategist Zhao Yaoting expressed his views on the US March CPI data, believing that the US inflation performance in March was disappointing. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in March increased by 0.359% from the previous month, while the market generally expected an increase of 0.3%. Zhao Yaoting believes that the current US economic growth has accelerated again, the labor market has tightened again, and inflation does not seem to continue to fall, and may even rise (depending on the upcoming core PCE data). This is why the US stock market fell yesterday and the US dollar rose. If the situation continues, perhaps it can be seen as a buying opportunity, as long as there is no evidence of accelerating wage growth, stronger economic growth and employment conditions will benefit business profits.
Zhao Yaoting pointed out that if the US economic growth and employment market continue to accelerate, inflation may rebound, and the US dollar will strengthen, which may force the Bank of England and the European Central Bank to change their recent dovish stance - although signs of accelerating inflation in these markets are not clear.
Although Zhao Yaoting does not believe that this completely rules out the possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June, the strong trend of US CPI inflation undoubtedly reduces this possibility. If Federal Reserve officials start to make more hawkish remarks, it is also expected.
In any case, Zhao Yaoting still believes that even if there is no rate cut but the economy maintains strong growth, it is more favorable for risk assets than a rate cut with weak economic growth and falling inflation.