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Fidelity International: The theme of investing in the long-term growth of the Chinese economy remains unchanged. High-quality bonds provide resilience to investment portfolios.
The theme of investing in China's long-term economic growth has not changed. As the economy enters the next phase of growth, a new round of investment opportunities will follow.
Fidelity International released a statement, stating that China currently tends to maintain economic "stability and controllability", focusing on steady economic growth in the short term rather than accelerated growth. Consumption during the Lunar New Year and Qingming Festival holidays was strong in the mainland, leading to improved corporate profits. The GDP for the first quarter exceeded expectations and reached 5.3%, with several positive factors supporting market optimism. The theme of investing in China's long-term economic growth remains unchanged, and as the economy enters the next stage of growth, new investment opportunities will arise. Catherine Yeung, Fidelity International's Director of Equity Investments, pointed out that the recent focus of the earnings period was on companies prioritizing increasing shareholder returns, increasing dividends, and conducting share buybacks in response to state-owned enterprise reforms and shareholder demands. This trend of enhancing corporate governance is particularly evident in the financial industry, with state-owned enterprises increasing dividend payout ratios or stabilizing dividends, while small financial enterprises are conducting share buybacks or increasing dividends to meet shareholder demands or address stock price pressures. Additionally, tech companies are also increasing dividend payout ratios or increasing the scale of share buybacks, transitioning from growth stocks to value stocks. With the industry providing investors with total returns that cannot be ignored, tech companies may attract a wider range of investors in the future. Fidelity International's Asia Fixed Income Investment Director, Chen Yongshi, stated that consumer services are leading China's economic recovery, with the service industry and tourism industry supporting the economy. Recent data shows that spending levels per individual trip in mainland China are higher than pre-pandemic levels. Since the beginning of the year, the number of railway trips has doubled compared to 2023, and the number of air travel trips has nearly doubled. The Macau gaming industry, tourism industry, and online platforms related to consumer services are expected to benefit. With the Chinese government continuing to introduce support measures, such as subsidies or targeted credit encouragement for durable goods upgrades, such as reducing the down payment ratio for car loans, more opportunities for industrial production and manufacturing are expected to be released. From a policy perspective, the National People's Congress reiterated the continuous improvement of monetary policy to be more prudent, flexible, targeted, and efficient to complement the central bank's loose monetary stance. Broad money (M2) and social financing are growing, aiming to be consistent with expected economic growth and price levels, providing growth space for the credit market. Market expectations are that more spending will shift to the central government, and Fidelity International believes that under the moderate easing of interest rates in mainland China, loose monetary policy should support the economy in a complementary manner with fiscal measures. To enhance risk management, more local governments may issue refinancing bonds, establish more local government financing platforms (LGFVs), or more cautiously evaluate local government off-balance sheet financing. These supportive economic policies will benefit Chinese bonds, with high-quality bonds providing resilience to investors' portfolios.
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