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Fidelity International: The chance of the US economy not landing is increasing, and there is a high possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the third quarter.
Global central banks will continue to embark on interest rate cuts this year, but with the increasing chances of the US economy not "landing", coupled with the resilience of the US economy, the timeline for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates may be pushed back. The timing and frequency of interest rate cuts by central banks around the world will depend on each country's inflation, employment, and economic conditions.
Recently, Liu Peiqian, an Asia economic analyst at Fidelity International, stated in an interview that global central banks will continue to cut interest rates this year. However, with the increasing chance of the US economy avoiding a "hard landing" and showing resilience, the timetable for the Federal Reserve to cut rates may be delayed. Liu believes that the timing and frequency of rate cuts by central banks around the world will depend on the inflation, employment, and economic conditions of different countries. Liu Peiqian pointed out that central banks around the world are closely watching the timing of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts. Based on strong labor market and inflation data, the Federal Reserve may postpone the rate cut from June to the third quarter. The pace of future rate cuts will be driven by fundamentals. Fidelity International's latest forecast puts the likelihood of a soft landing for the US economy at about 40%, a non-landing scenario at 30%, and a mild recession at 25%. Liu Peiqian stated that the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan is crucial for the People's Bank of China, and she believes that fiscal policy will continue to be the main stimulus policy in China for the coming quarters. She further mentioned that recent economic data shows continuous recovery in China's manufacturing and industrial sectors, with the service sector growing faster than the average. She believes that new infrastructure is the long-term direction for China's transformation, and continuous stimulus policies in China will help the market move towards stable and controlled growth.
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