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UBS: Upgrades China and Hong Kong Stock Market Ratings to "Buy," Expects Better Performance in Consumer Sector.
Upgrade the rating of Hong Kong stock market to "buy" or "hold" level.
UBS report indicates that the rating of the Hong Kong stock market has been upgraded to "overweight" as it has underperformed so far this year, with listed companies increasing their support for dividends and the potential recovery of the tourism industry. UBS also upgraded the rating of the mainland stock market to "overweight". In the components of the MSCI China Index, the proportions of the consumer and internet industries are high, so their profitability has not been significantly affected by the headwinds in the real estate market; with preliminary signs of a recovery in consumption, their performance is expected to be better. UBS mentioned that over the past 18 months, the real estate sector has been under pressure, but the EPS of the MSCI China has only declined by about 2% during this period, outperforming other emerging markets by about 8% in terms of decline; from the perspective of performance and fundamentals, the large-cap components in the index are generally good, with the underperformance against the overall market only due to valuation collapse. UBS also stated that China's holiday consumption data has been strong since the beginning of the year, with the performance of listed consumer goods companies outperforming the overall consumption in the economy. Any rebound in consumer confidence implies that household savings could flow into consumption and the market, making UBS more optimistic about corporate profits. In addition, UBS downgraded the stock markets of China, Taiwan, and South Korea to "neutral", citing that after the recent rebound, valuations are no longer supportive. UBS mentioned that compared to other emerging markets, tech stocks in Taiwan and South Korea have reached their highest premium in a decade.
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