Bank of China Hong Kong: Artificial Intelligence has a positive impact on the profitability of American enterprises. Pay attention to the first quarter performance of American enterprises.

2024-04-24 09:36

Zhitongcaijing
Zhang Shiqi stated that the repeated delay of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve also reflects the strength of the economy, with expectations of positive impact on corporate earnings in the U.S. Investors should pay close attention to whether the recent performance of U.S. companies meets market expectations.
Zhang Shiqi, Director of Wealth Strategy and Analysis Department of Individual Digital Financial Products Department of Bank of China Hong Kong, stated in a post that, benefiting from economic growth and the popularization of artificial intelligence, the profit growth forecast for US stocks in 2024 has been raised. The latest data shows that the full-year profit growth forecast for the S&P 500 index enterprises in 2024 has increased from February to the current 9.4%. The forecasted growth for 2025 is even higher at 14.7%, significantly better than the 0.39% in 2023. The repeated postponement of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve also reflects the strong resilience of the economy, with expectations for a positive impact on US corporate profits. Investors should pay attention to whether the recent performance disclosures of US companies meet market expectations.
Currently in the first quarter when US corporate performance disclosures are being made, although there are not many companies that have announced their profits, the average profit growth for the first quarter of S&P 500 companies that have announced profits has reached 8.66%. According to media integration forecasts, as of April 19, the market estimates that the overall profit growth of the S&P 500 index in the first quarter is close to 2%, better than the -2% for the same period last year. Among the 11 industry sectors, the sectors with the highest profit growth estimates are communication services, information technology, and utilities, with profit growth estimates exceeding 19% for all three.
Zhang Shiqi stated that artificial intelligence is an indispensable driving factor, and last quarter's corporate profits were supported by the development of artificial intelligence businesses, leading to a strong performance in US stocks. She believes the theme of artificial intelligence will continue to lead related sectors in profit growth in the first quarter of this year and will cover a wider range of sectors. From the major industries of chip manufacturing and artificial intelligence software programming to the surrounding industries related to artificial intelligence applications, such as communication services companies joining generative AI advertising systems recently, and even large social platforms developing their own AI chips, these developments are welcomed by the market. Therefore, it is expected that the profits of the communication services and information technology sectors will further benefit.
Despite the recent market risk aversion affecting US stocks, in the background of moderate economic growth supporting profits, it is expected that the high overvaluation of US stocks can be reduced in the medium and long term, thus supporting the performance of the stock market, and when the market sentiment recovers, US stocks are also expected to rise. In addition, Zhang Shiqi expects that artificial intelligence will indirectly benefit the energy sector. With moderate economic growth, energy demand is already increasing, and artificial intelligence computation requires a large amount of energy, thus the popularization of artificial intelligence will also increase electricity consumption. Therefore, the utilities sector, including electricity production and renewable energy, is expected to have a higher profit in the first quarter of this year.