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Schroder: Currently, the valuation of US stocks is too high, closely watching whether the earnings and growth momentum of the technology "Seven Giants" are matching.
Schroder's quantitative stock research team said that the "7 tech giants" in the US stock market are still worth paying close attention to, but it is important to monitor the actual performance of these stocks and determine whether the earnings and growth trajectory of these companies are compatible with each other.
The global quant stock research team at Schroders has stated that by early 2024, the weight of the US technology sector in the local overall stock market index has reached a level not seen since the mid-2000 bubble peak - with technology stocks accounting for a considerable share of the financial market (23% of the MSCI Global Index and almost 29% of the S&P 500 Index). However, the current situation is different, with the most significant change being that compared to 25 years ago, the fundamentals of the technology industry are stronger and have a much greater impact on the financial markets. While the US tech "big seven" are still worth close attention, it is important to monitor the actual performance of these stocks and discern if their earnings and growth trajectories are matching. Schroders global has mentioned that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates later than expected by the market, historical data shows that while there will be a surge in market sentiment before the first rate cut, cautious sentiment will follow. This will lead investors to favor high-quality and leadership-capable companies, hence defensive stocks may receive more attention than in the past. The key question is how long the stable period of the US federal funds rate will last. Despite the upcoming rate cut, it is still unclear whether the loose monetary policy will benefit the stock market, due to the lagging impact of previous tightening policies ultimately dragging down corporate earnings and stock returns. Overall, Schroders global believes that in 2024 there will be rotation in the financial markets, an increase in volatility, and fewer favorable factors for overall market returns. Schroders global also notes that in the long term, the valuation of US stock indices is not attractive. In early 2024, the forecasted price-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 index is around 21 times, nearly 20% higher than its 15-year median. Currently, the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio for US stocks (31 times) is 22% higher than the average level since 1990, whereas the average cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio for other regions globally (15 times) is slightly lower than recent historical levels.
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