Schroder Investment Management: The United States may lower interest rates as early as the second half of the year. Inflation expectations and adjustments to monetary policy will influence the global bond markets.

2024-05-13 16:54

Zhitongcaijing
Wu Meiyan stated that the main factors driving the global bond market trend around 2024 will continue to focus on inflation expectations and adjustments in monetary policy.
Schroders Global Fixed Income Investment Director Wu Meiyan stated that the company still expects the United States to have a chance of cutting interest rates at the earliest in the second half of this year, while predicting a 60-70% chance of the U.S. economy achieving a "soft landing." The main factors affecting the global bond market trend around 2024 will continue to focus on inflation expectations and monetary policy adjustments. Investors also need to pay attention to the financial market noise before the U.S. presidential election and congressional elections. Although these factors may not directly affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the overall volatility of the bond market still has a chance to increase before the elections.
Wu Meiyan stated that Mainland Chinese bonds can help diversify risks in global investment portfolios. Since the beginning of this year, the performance of most investment-grade bonds globally has been volatile and yields have risen, mainly due to strong U.S. macroeconomic data, fewer expected interest rate cuts than the market anticipated, and reduced concerns about a U.S. economic recession. Due to the difference in economic cycles between Mainland China and other economies, high credit rating Mainland sovereign bonds and policy bank bonds can provide a role in diversifying investment risks. However, judging from the returns since the beginning of 2024, Mainland high-yield bonds or general corporate bonds have lagged behind. The company holds a relatively cautious view on these two types of assets and requires more careful selection.
In addition, in terms of bond maturity, Wu Meiyan pointed out that as the Mainland yield curve has not shown an inverted shape, in the case of a chance of easing monetary policy, the company currently prefers medium to long-term bonds.