Swiss YinFeng Zhen Junjie: Hong Kong stocks are expected to rise to 20,000 points in the second quarter.

2024-05-20 14:10

Zhitongcaijing
Zhen Junjie stated that the Hong Kong stock market reaching 20,000 points in the second quarter was not surprising, but it may adjust in the short term due to overbuying. It is expected that 18,500 points will provide support, and investors can enter the market near the support level.
Currently, the Hong Kong stock market is moving towards the 20,000 point mark. Zhen Junjie, Director and Chief Investment Strategist of Switzerland's EFG Bank, stated that it was not surprising for the Hong Kong stock market to reach 20,000 points in the second quarter, but there could be a short-term adjustment due to overbuying. It is expected that 18,500 points will provide support, and investors can enter the market near the support level.
The valuation of Hong Kong A-shares is relatively low, leading to a shift of funds from high valuation markets like Japan to low valuation markets. Zhen Junjie pointed out that hedge funds are guided by the macroeconomic environment, and in the case of Japan, when the yen weakens, the stock market theoretically continues to rise. However, the recent situation has been abnormal, with the stock market decreasing instead, reflecting the outflow of funds to low valuation markets. The current increase in the Hong Kong stock market is partly driven by hedge funds, but long-term funds have not made significant purchases. Although the market has seen rapid short-term gains, this is considered to be the "delayed spring" for the Hong Kong stock market, and some hedge funds may not necessarily exit rapidly.
Last Friday, mainland China announced several measures to support the property market. Zhen Junjie believes that if these measures are successfully implemented, it will stimulate rigid demand and benefit overall economic development in China. As property market stabilizes, people will be more willing to consume and a wealth effect may appear. Electrical and other related stocks are expected to rise, and considering the sharp declines of some insurance companies in the past, as the real estate market stabilizes and concerns about loan defaults ease, with the rise in new business value, it will benefit the sector.
In addition to policies, the exchange rate of the renminbi and corporate profits are also factors that may affect the continuation of the Hong Kong stock market rally. Currently, the market still expects the US to cut interest rates. If it does not happen, funds may not necessarily flow into emerging markets, including China. In terms of long-term investment, Zhen Junjie stated that many overseas investors are still underweight in Hong Kong A-shares, and large tech stocks are their preferred choice for foreign capital inflow, indicating that the percentage of tech stocks held by foreign investors is still relatively low. Therefore, even if some tech stocks underperform, with tech companies undergoing structural adjustments, they will be considered for long-term investment when foreign capital flows back in.