Fidelity International: Investors turn their focus to the Chinese market, dividend-paying stocks will play a role in combating inflation.

2024-05-23 14:08

Zhitongcaijing
Given that inflation is still at a high level, Fidelity International expects dividend-paying stocks to play a role in combating inflation.
Regarding the outlook for the Asian market, Marty Dropkin, the head of stock investments in the Asia Pacific region for Fidelity International, stated that even though the environment of higher interest rates is expected to persist, most developed market interest rates have already peaked. Historically, during rate cutting cycles, dividend-paying stocks have often outperformed the broader market. Fidelity International expects dividend-paying stocks to act as a hedge against inflation given the current high inflation levels.
Fidelity International pointed out that global dividends grew strongly in 2023, with this trend expected to continue this year, as market expectations are that 59% of global companies will increase dividend payouts by 2024. Currently, dividend payout ratios in mainland China, Japan, and South Korea are still below the global average and significantly lag behind the deep-rooted dividend culture in European markets. However, governance reforms in these Asian regions are expected to help increase dividend payout ratios.
High-quality stocks with consistent dividend growth provide investors with attractive risk-adjusted returns. Benefiting from attractive valuations in mainland China and Hong Kong markets, these markets have recently attracted global funds and driven Asian stocks upward. The acceleration of manufacturing and infrastructure investments in mainland China in the first three months of this year, along with better-than-expected economic growth in the first quarter, have boosted confidence in the Chinese economic recovery. With Chinese tech companies starting to buy back shares and increase dividend payouts, the MSCI China Index recorded positive returns for the first time since early 2021.
In April, China's State Council issued the third "State 9 Articles," aimed at strengthening supervision, preventing risks, promoting high-quality development of the capital market, thus increasing capital market returns and attracting more investors to participate. The "State 9 Articles" 3.0 version mentioned building a secure, regulated, transparent, open, vibrant, and resilient capital market, coupled with recent policies supporting the real estate sector to boost market sentiment.
Additionally, markets in South Korea and Taiwan, dominated by tech companies, might face challenging situations. In the first quarter, funds flowing into Asia driven by the artificial intelligence theme began exiting in April, with chip manufacturer TSMC forecasting weak global chip demand for the second half of the year, triggering a sell-off in Asian semiconductor companies and potentially dampening investors' enthusiasm for the artificial intelligence theme. Furthermore, the Korean market may also be affected by concerns over reduced demand for electric vehicles and batteries.
As for other Asian markets, Fidelity International expects the Indian market to continue to perform well. While valuations of mid-cap and small-cap stocks may be high, some overlooked large-cap stocks have long-term growth potential and could benefit from India's sustained economic growth. Additionally, significant investments from domestic institutional investors in the Indian market may have offset outflows of overseas funds. Moreover, Singapore's local economy is showing strong growth, presenting investment opportunities. However, as investors turn their focus to the Chinese market, interest in ASEAN countries such as Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines may relatively decrease.