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Schroder's An Yun: Chinese asset valuation is low and cost-effective, optimistic about six types of sector opportunities.
Currently, overall investment transactions seem to still be declining, and investors need to wait for more clear signals from the fundamentals.
Schroders Global Fund Management (China) Deputy General Manager, An Yun, expressed the latest investment views and comments. In the final week of April 2024, the financial markets resumed an upward trend, showing a good rebound. He believes that this is a result of low asset valuation and high cost-effectiveness in China, but currently overall investment trading still seems to be declining, and investors need to wait for more clear signals from the fundamentals. From an asset allocation perspective, he is optimistic about several sectors: 1) upgrading manufacturing is one of the key factors for China to become a high-income country; 2) China's industrial chain "going global"; 3) possibilities for the cyclical recovery of industries such as pig farming, new energy, and real estate chains; 4) artificial intelligence; 5) returns; 6) opportunities in consumer goods replacement. He pointed out that although the economic data for January and February 2024 was generally weak, some industries showed encouraging positive changes. Currently, the export industry chain is relatively strong, real estate sales and investments are still at low levels, and consumption is weak. A strong export industry chain usually indicates good overall performance in the manufacturing industry, which is one of the main positive changes in economic data since 2024 and is a trend worth investors' attention. Furthermore, although overall real estate sales are still at a low level, there has been a resurgence of "volume-for-price" transactions in the second-hand real estate markets of some first-tier cities, and even instances of properties being sold out on the day of public sale. The bank will closely monitor whether these sparks will ignite a larger trend. After two consecutive years of drastic adjustments, China's total real estate inventory is approaching levels seen in other major countries, and the bubble is gradually dissipating. During the Qingming Festival holiday, there was a recovery in per capita tourist consumption, but during the May Day holiday, per capita consumption showed a decline, indicating fluctuations in consumption data. From an asset allocation perspective, Schroders Global remains positive about the following sectors: First, upgrading manufacturing is one of the key factors for China to become a high-income country, which not only aligns with current national policy direction, but also shows many positive changes at the micro level. The bank believes this is an industry worth focusing on in the next 5 to 10 years, and may also be a sector where many bullish stocks emerge. Second, the trend of China's industrial chain "going global" (investing overseas to form industrial chains or joining overseas industrial chains) is gaining momentum in high-end manufacturing industries such as automobiles, electronics, and machinery, which the bank believes is worth focusing on for at least the next 5 to 10 years. Third, from the perspective of cycle reversal, investors should focus on the potential for cyclical recovery in industries such as pig farming, new energy, real estate chains, and non-financial sectors. Fourth, artificial intelligence (AI) is currently the most important technological revolution, and investors should focus on the recovery trend in high-end manufacturing industries such as electronics. Fifth, returns are still worth paying attention to. Income-generating assets will continue to be favored until the economy truly recovers. Sixth, pay attention to changes in consumer attitudes: live in the moment, explore experiential consumer goods, and focus on opportunities in consumer goods replacement.
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