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Jun Henderson: Strong growth in global dividends in the first quarter, expected to maintain stable growth in the second half of the year.
According to the latest Janus Henderson Global Dividend Index, the global dividend amount in the first quarter surged to $339.2 billion, showing strong growth with an increase of 6.8%.
According to the latest Janus Henderson Global Dividend Index, the global dividend amount for the first quarter rose to $339.2 billion, showing strong growth with an increase of 6.8%, but overall growth slowed to 2.4% due to a decrease in one-time special dividends. The first quarter is typically a low season for dividend payouts in multiple global markets including Asia. Dividends for the first quarter of this year align with Janus Henderson's predictions and it is expected to maintain stable growth in the second half of the year. Janus Henderson's forecast for the total dividend amount in 2024 remains unchanged at $1.72 trillion. The overall growth rate is expected to be affected by lower special dividends, with a 3.9% annual increase, equivalent to a base growth of 5.0%. Mainland China recorded a dividend amount of $3.3 billion, with Alibaba (09988) distributing dividends for the first time in the first quarter amounting to $2.6 billion, making it the top dividend payer among Chinese mainland companies. Netease (09999) is another Chinese mainland company in the index that distributed dividends only in the first quarter, with the dividend amount being four times that of the previous year. Hong Kong dividends reached $2.2 billion, driven by Hang Seng Bank (00011) distributing $0.8 billion in dividends, resulting in a base growth of 11.2% during the low dividend season. Meanwhile, Taiwan dividends reached $3.8 billion, driven only by TSMC's $2.5 billion in dividends, achieving a base growth of 9.1%. In mid-2023, overall dividend payouts in Taiwan increased due to MediaTek switching to semi-annual dividends. The first quarter is a low season for dividends in Japan, with dividends totaling $4.8 billion and a base growth rate of 12.1%, continuing the strong performance of 2023, but overall growth is hampered by a weak yen. Most companies in Japan recorded double-digit growth, with chipmaker Renesas Electronics distributing dividends for the first time in many years, while only Japan Tobacco reduced its dividends. The Japanese market is increasingly focusing on corporate governance, which not only welcomes a cultural shift in companies but also helps increase dividends to shareholders. Australia dominates dividend payouts in the Asia Pacific region (excluding Japan) in the first quarter every year, accounting for three-quarters of the total dividend payouts in the region for the first quarter of 2024, but companies' dividend payout performances vary. Mining company BHP is the only company in the index to reduce dividends, while real estate group Goodman and retailer Coles did not increase their payouts. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia, as typically one of the largest payers in the first quarter, saw a 2.3% increase in dividends. Despite a significant increase in dividends for Fortescue Metals Group, Australia's total dividends for the first quarter did not grow, showing a 0.2% base decline. Additionally, Woodside Energy significantly reduced dividends in April, indicating that dividend payouts in the second quarter of Australia may decline. Australia's dependence on commodities exacerbates the volatility in its annual dividend payout performance. Sat Duhra, Co-Portfolio Manager of the Janus Henderson Asia Dividend Income Fund, stated that since the first quarter is a low season for dividends in Asia, large dividend payers have a significant impact, such as BHP this time. Interestingly, some positive market news from the previous quarter has influenced future dividend trends in the region. For example, the South Korean government has implemented a value enhancement plan to increase dividends and improve corporate governance. Additionally, the Chinese government has released the new "Nine Policies" aimed at improving the capital market through dividends and share buybacks. It is expected that these measures will help boost dividends in the medium term, and companies in these markets have shown encouraging dividend actions.
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