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French Bank of Paris: Expects the Federal Reserve to Begin Cutting Interest Rates in June, Focus on Interest Rate Sensitive Stocks.
Xu Qimin stated that, benefiting from expectations of interest rate cuts, he advises investors to pay attention to interest rate-sensitive stocks.
The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in March this year, but French bank BNP Paribas has a more conservative view, predicting that the Fed will start cutting rates in June, with a total reduction of 1.25% throughout the year. This means that by the end of the year, the Federal Funds Rate range will fall to 4% to 4.25%. Xu Qimin, Managing Director of Wealth Management Asia and Head of the Stock Advisory Department at BNP Paribas Bank, said in a media interview that due to expectations of rate cuts, investors are advised to pay attention to rate-sensitive stocks. Xu Qimin mentioned that Fed Chairman Powell has been quite hawkish in the past, but he changed his tune in December last year, indicating that the Fed may be prepared to start a rate-cutting cycle in 2024. BNP Paribas predicts that the Fed will start cutting rates in June, with a total reduction of 125 basis points, possibly in increments of 25 basis points, and sometimes more. Since the market began speculating on rate cuts, related rate-sensitive stocks have outperformed the broader market, such as real estate stocks, rental stocks, and utility stocks. Xu Qimin stated, "If rate cuts begin, these stocks are likely to continue to outperform, and we also continue to see good prospects for these stocks in 2024."
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