Atsumoto's Deputy Chief Economist James Cann said that the Federal Reserve unexpectedly showed a "hawkish" stance at the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with board members expecting a rate cut this year as the overall median. Atsumoto currently expects the Federal Reserve to wait until December to cut rates, and the likelihood of a rate cut in November is low due to the approaching US presidential election. Despite a weak May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, the monetary policy outcome still showed that the threshold for easing was higher than market expectations. In fact, with solid economic growth and stable labor market conditions, the Federal Reserve seems to be patient in waiting for signs of sustained progress in inflation easing. James Cann said that while the possibility of a rate cut in September cannot be ruled out, eight members are still considering two rate cuts in 2024, and Chairman Powell has made it clear that policy will be data-driven. However, Atsumoto stated that it may be necessary to see persistently weak inflation data before the board moves in that direction, but there seems to be little room for a significant change. Although a sharp deterioration in growth or labor market indicators could also lead to the same change, Atsumoto believes that economic activity will continue to slow down, with little sign of significant weakening seen by the bank. After the release of the Consumer Price Index report, the market expected a rate cut of 50 basis points this year, but following the Federal Reserve's more "hawkish" stance, market predictions only saw a slight change (with a median of a 45 basis point rate cut). Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve being data-driven and maintaining open options, interest rate expectations over the next few months are likely to continue to fluctuate.