Reuters: Bank of Japan to maintain dovish stance, supporting positive factors in Japanese stocks.

2024-06-14 10:27

Zhitongcaijing
Daniel Hurley, a portfolio expert in emerging markets and Japanese stocks at Fidelity, pointed out that broadly speaking, the Bank of Japan is not expected to make any significant changes at this week's meeting.
Daniel Hurley, an expert in emerging markets and Japanese stock portfolios at Plumridge, pointed out that in general, the Bank of Japan is not expected to make significant changes at this week's meeting. With interest rates slightly rising, it is expected that the Bank of Japan will reduce its purchases of Japanese government bonds, and the focus of the Bank of Japan will shift. The market increasingly expects the Bank of Japan to raise its policy rate in July. Even if it is possible to raise rates by 25 basis points in July, the Bank of Japan will still maintain an accommodative and dovish stance. Therefore, it is expected that the yen will remain relatively weak and still be affected by global interest rate differentials.
Plumridge maintains a positive outlook on the prospects of the Japanese stock market, pointing out that its valuation is still attractive, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.5 times as of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024. Due to the impact of the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, the yen remains weak, which will benefit export companies. Although global interest rates are rising, global growth remains strong, which also provides favorable support for Japanese export companies.
It is worth noting that as corporate spending increases, domestic inflation and wage growth in Japan are accelerating. Domestic inflation in Japan will also push up pressure and expectations for shareholder return reforms from the government, regulatory agencies, and important minority shareholders and activist shareholders. Inflation will also benefit large Japanese companies with huge balance sheets.
Plumridge stated that the recent full-year results of major companies reflect strong corporate profit growth. Although profit forecasts are usually conservative, dividends and share buybacks will increase, while cross-shareholdings will decrease. This development is significant because it is expected that other industries, such as life insurance and banking, will follow suit. Major companies will hold their shareholder meetings in June, and it is expected that activist shareholders and minority shareholders will increase pressure. In addition, the increase in shareholder returns will not only attract investors but also help improve the return on equity of the Japanese market, potentially attracting investors who have been hesitant to invest in the Japanese market due to low returns.