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Faba: Hang Seng Index is expected to rise above 20,000 points, bullish on technology stocks related to artificial intelligence.
The Hang Seng Index has been fluctuating between 17,000 and 19,000 points for a period of time. If there are catalysts in the future to stimulate it, it is expected to have a chance to rise above 20,000 points.
Tan Huimin, Chief Investment Strategist at BNP Paribas Wealth Management in Hong Kong, stated that the Hang Seng Index has fluctuated between 17,000 and 19,000 points for some time, and she expects it to have a chance to surpass 20,000 points in the future if there are stimulating catalysts. She explained that the upcoming Third Plenary Session and Political Bureau meetings next month could boost market confidence if more supportive economic growth or market favorable policies are announced. In terms of the Hong Kong stock market, she is optimistic about AI-related technology stocks such as mobile device and hardware stocks, and she continues to hold a positive view on high dividend stocks, especially state-owned bank stocks and Chinese telecom stocks. Tan Huimin mentioned that foreign investors currently investing in Hong Kong stocks are mainly short-term funds such as hedge funds and quantitative funds. She admitted that long-term foreign funds who profited from the Hong Kong stock market have shifted their investments to US stocks. She further stated that capital flows in the Hong Kong stock market mainly rely on northbound capital inflows and southbound capital outflows due to the weakening of the renminbi, which creates a need for forex hedging for mainland Chinese investors. Furthermore, with global attention on the US presidential election in November, Prashant Bhayani, Chief Investment Officer of BNP Paribas Wealth Management Asia Pacific, mentioned that the least impactful outcome for the market would be if Biden wins the presidency while Congress continues to be divided between the two parties. He pointed out that if Trump were to remain in office and the Republicans were to gain a majority in Congress, the US might increase import tariffs but simultaneously decrease taxes for US companies. Bhayani mentioned that historically, the S&P 500 index tends to experience a 3% to 4% pullback during election periods, but within a year, it generally sees an 11% increase. He advised that overall investment portfolios should strike a balance between US and non-US stocks, AI and other sectors. BNP Paribas Wealth Management maintains a positive view on global stock markets including Japan and India, and continues to prefer selective government bonds and investment-grade bonds. Additionally, with the US economy expected to experience a soft landing, the bank recently raised its target price for gold to $2,600 per ounce next year.
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