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Zhuhongyu, a fund manager at China Merchants Fund, said that there may be some surprises in store for A-share and Hong Kong stock markets in 2024.
Taking into account various dimensions, whether it is the economic position, chip structure, market expectations, in all aspects, the probability of 2024 being good is high, and may even exceed everyone's expectations.
On December 29, 2023, Zhu Hongyu, Chief Research Officer of CMB Fund, and Zhai Xiangdong from CMB Fund made projections for 2024 investments in a live broadcast. Zhu Hongyu pointed out that from the internal situation of the economy itself, the situations of quantity, price, and inventory indicators in 2023 are much better than at the end of 2022, as they are basically at a bottom level. In addition, the capital expenditures and ongoing projects in some industries have already reached a bottom position, indicating a possible improvement in future supply-demand relationships. In the past two to three years, the real estate industry has also undergone a very rapid and substantial adjustment. It is possible that in China, a process that would take 5 to 10 years or even longer to complete in some countries and regions has been completed in two to three years. Therefore, from the perspective of the economy itself, 2023 will be much better than 2022, and there is a possibility of stabilizing and even recovering in 2024. The digestion of China's own valuation, chips, and chip structure is much better than three years ago and last year. Looking at various dimensions comprehensively, whether it is the economic position, chip structure, market expectations, and various other aspects, it is highly likely that 2024 will be good and may even exceed expectations. Whether it's Hong Kong stocks or A-shares, 2024 may bring some surprises. Zhai Xiangdong believes that in the layout of the technology sector in 2024, there should be two approaches. The first is to focus on cyclical industries that are not directly related to AI and this round of innovation, as they have a strong correlation with the economy. Companies in the electronics and computer industries are suppliers to various industries. If prospects for the economy improve, these companies will have the opportunity for performance improvement and valuation recovery. Representatives of this category include analog chips, storage chips, MCUs, and computers, among others. Many downstream industries may face short-term challenges, such as healthcare and finance-related companies, which are good opportunities for long-term positioning on the left side. The second approach is to focus on industries that have shown good performance in 2023 and will undergo many marginal changes in 2024. These industries are typically represented by AI-based software and hardware companies. Looking at the year 2024, Zhai Xiangdong leans towards companies that can find ways to monetize and solve customer pain points, as these ecosystem-oriented niche companies have investment value. What is truly scarce is whether the core business can be well integrated with AI technology, solve customer pain points, and enhance product functionality. This is where the true investment value lies in the future business logic, as companies with immense growth potential are present. Zhai Xiangdong believes that in this major trend, companies that can integrate well with AI in the future and have a high level of user recognition and industry concentration in their niche platforms will see a reevaluation of their value. Therefore, for 2024, the application of AI has become a focal point in their investment endeavors. As for companies that lean towards hardware, they may have already met expectations in 2023. Finding companies that can enter a trend of valuation expansion and have a significant upside momentum in 2024 is considered quite challenging by Zhai Xiangdong. In other words, it will be relatively difficult for these companies to achieve significant excess returns in 2024.
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