Baling: Asian economic conditions have improved and will support stock market performance in the coming year.

2024-06-20 14:10

Zhitongcaijing
Benefiting from the strong performance of developed markets, the economic conditions in Asia have improved, which will support the performance of Asian stock markets in the coming year.
Barling stated that Asia's economic conditions have improved due to a stronger developed market, which will support the performance of Asian stock markets in the coming year. Markets that performed poorly last year are expected to rebound, and the structural growth themes in Asia continue to provide support for the future performance of Asian stocks. The bank believes that economic growth in the region may return to long-term averages and even surpass developed markets. Additionally, the economic recovery in Europe and the United States may slightly improve demand in developed markets, and major central banks may end their monetary tightening policies, which could benefit global liquidity and Asian corporate earnings as the US dollar may depreciate.
As of now, the situation of the Chinese government cutting spending may have reached a low point. The "old-for-new" consumption plan and equipment update policy introduced previously aim to encourage consumption and improve productivity. With a stable external environment supporting export-oriented manufacturers, as well as overall dovish liquidity conditions, these factors are expected to support the stock market performance this year. Additionally, the negative impact of the real estate market on the stock market may weaken compared to last year.
Furthermore, the Indian economy is showing stable performance and is expected to achieve strong structural growth in the coming years. The Indian stock market is performing well due to significant domestic inflow into the market, and the ruling party's potential reelection should ensure policy continuity. Strongly performing stocks may experience a pullback, providing potential buying opportunities.
In South Korea and Taiwan, many companies are expected to benefit from the growth trends in artificial intelligence and related businesses. The bank recently sold some overvalued Taiwanese stocks selectively. Following Japan's lead, Korean regulatory agencies have implemented a "corporate value enhancement" plan to encourage companies to voluntarily return more capital to shareholders and improve corporate governance, aiming to encourage investment, increase shareholder returns, and promote positive reassessment of the market.
Obstacles to corporate earnings growth are gradually being removed, and the bank remains confident in the Indonesian and Philippine stock markets. The early end of the Indonesian election has brought policy continuity and promoted business activity recovery. Strong domestic demand, prudent fiscal and monetary policies are favorable for Indonesia's long-term structural growth. Philippine inflation is slowing, which is expected to support local companies' earnings growth. In Singapore and Malaysia, several companies likely to benefit from the global tech cycle have been identified, especially in hardware technology. The Thai stock market has lagged behind other countries since 2023 due to unclear policies and slower-than-expected return of Chinese tourists. These factors may improve in the coming months, and fiscal policies will once again support the market.
Given the broad investment opportunities in the Asian markets, the bank believes it is necessary to adopt a rigorous bottom-up stock selection approach. Continuing to identify investment value in Asian companies benefiting from major long-term growth themes such as technology adoption, lifestyle and societal value changes (including sustainable development, millennial/Z generation consumption trends, and healthy living), and globalization (diversification of the supply chain, split and company retreat). Although market style shifts have led to volatility, the bank believes that sticking to a "growth at a reasonable price" (GARP) investment approach can position portfolios favorably in the long run.