Yongming Asset: Neutral optimism towards Hong Kong stocks, not excluding the possibility of reaching the 20,000-point level in the next 12 months.

2024-06-20 21:12

Zhitongcaijing
She is neutral optimistic about Hong Kong stocks, not ruling out the possibility of them rising to the 20,000-point level in the next 12 months, but it depends on other factors such as whether the Third Plenum in China in July will introduce policies that will strongly support the economy.
Gong Weiyi, Chief Investment Strategist of Wing Ming Asset Management (Hong Kong), stated that she maintains a preference for US stocks in the second half of the year. The main reason for supporting US stocks is the momentum of corporate profits. The average forecast for earnings per share of US stocks in the next 12 months is expected to grow by 12%, with the technology sector closer to a 25% growth. She is neutral optimistic about Hong Kong stocks, not ruling out the possibility of Hong Kong stocks rising to the 20,000 point level in the next 12 months, depending on whether other factors cooperate, including the possibility of impactful economic support policies being introduced at the Third Plenum in China in July.
She mentioned that although the US interest rates have accumulated by more than 5% in the past, due to strong fundamentals supporting corporate performance, last quarter's corporate earnings, especially in the technology sector, have been strong. In the S&P 500, 80% of companies performed better than market expectations. Looking ahead, the average forecast for earnings growth in the next 12 months is expected to be 12%, with the technology sector showing a potential growth of close to 25%.
She remains neutral optimistic about Hong Kong stocks, believing that the current valuations of Hong Kong stocks are close to a 10-year low. She does not rule out the possibility of Hong Kong stocks rising to the 20,000 point level in the next 12 months, but this would require other factors such as more policies being announced at the upcoming Third Plenum. This includes looking at whether there will be more loosening of real estate policies, and if the downward trend of Hong Kong-listed Chinese enterprises will reverse.
She also mentioned that currently the interest rates on US 10-year and 2-year bonds are close to the highs seen after the 2008 financial crisis. If the US enters an interest rate reduction cycle towards the end of the year, bond prices could become relatively attractive. Based on past experiences, bond performances during rate reduction cycles have been positive. As a medium to long-term investment, investors should consider a diversified portfolio that includes stocks and bonds.