Standard Chartered: China's stock market valuation is already very low and we are optimistic about the non-essential goods and technology sectors.

2024-01-04 14:33

Zhitongcaijing
Standard Chartered gives a "neutral" rating to Chinese stocks, and gives an "overweight" rating to the communication and non-essential goods sectors in China. They also raised the rating for the technology sector to "overweight", and also raised the ratings for the healthcare management and utilities sectors to "neutral".
StanChart's Chief Investment Officer for North Asia, Kelvin Cheng, stated that the performance of Hong Kong stocks last year was affected by factors such as the Fed rate hikes, and uncertainties remain in China's mainland policies. He expects the Fed rate hike cycle to end in the next 12 months, with fewer negative factors compared to last year. The rate hike is also expected to provide support for Hong Kong property stocks, thus supporting the performance of the Hang Seng Index. He maintains an "overweight" position in mature market government bonds, and raises the overall view on global stocks to "overweight". Chinese stock market valuations are already very low, with a "neutral" allocation to Chinese stocks. He also gives an "overweight" rating to the communication and non-essential goods sectors in China, raises the rating for the technology sector to "overweight", and raises the ratings for the healthcare management and utilities sectors to "neutral".
Kelvin Cheng mentioned that although there have been positive news for mainland property developers in the past month or two, the issue of the lack of cash flow for developers has not been fully addressed. He hopes that future measures targeted at developers will provide a significant boost to the market.
StanChart's Senior Investment Strategy Analyst in Hong Kong, Andrew Chan, expects the US dollar to moderately depreciate, with a narrow range of movement in the next 3 months as the market has already factored in expectations of rate cuts. With the US economy slowing down again, the US dollar is expected to mildly decline in the next 6-12 months. The target for the US dollar index in the next 3 months is 102, and 100 in the next 12 months. The Euro, Australian Dollar, and Japanese Yen are likely to benefit the most from the weakening US dollar. Japan may tighten monetary policy in the first quarter, supporting a narrowing of the US-Japan interest rate spread. The US dollar to Chinese Yuan exchange rate is expected to reach 7.16 in the next 3 months, and 7 in the next 12 months.