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HSBC Investment Management: There are huge opportunities in Asian stock markets. The valuation of Chinese stock market may further increase.
HSBC Asset Management stated that in the second half of 2024, they believe global economic growth and investment markets will continue to be strong and resilient. However, due to increasing uncertainties and differences in economic growth and policies around the world, investors need to adopt defensive growth strategies.
HSBC Investment Management stated that as we enter the second half of 2024, they believe global economic growth and investment markets will continue to be robust. However, due to increasing uncertainties and differences in economic growth and policies around the world, investors need to adopt a defensive growth strategy. In the first half of the year, a strong labor market and favorable fiscal policies helped the global economy resist the impact of restrictive interest rates. Economic power is gradually shifting to Asia and strong emerging markets. On the other hand, European economies continue to face challenges, including a renewed acceleration in inflation. Looking ahead, the bank's benchmark forecast predicts that the economy will move towards a soft landing phase, with economic growth expanding and inflation slowing down again, especially in the United States where inflation is expected to reverse downwards in the remaining months of this year. While the bank expects inflation in emerging markets to ease, they anticipate a gradual increase in inflation in China due to slight increases in pork and energy prices. HSBC Investment Management stated that due to the Federal Reserve keeping rates "at a higher level for a longer period of time", there may be a 0.25% to 0.5% rate cut before the end of the year, with further policy easing in 2025. Meanwhile, other economies, including Europe and Latin America, are expected to cut rates earlier than the United States. Unlike other mature markets, Japan is expected to hike rates in the second half of the year to slightly tighten monetary policy. In Asia, China is expected to enter a stable growth cycle, while India's strong economic momentum will continue into 2025. China is steadily achieving its goal of around 5% real GDP growth. HSBC Investment Management stated that the momentum in the US stock market remains strong. However, there are clear signs that the stock market is overvalued, and higher yield opportunities are mostly found outside the US. The bank expects to see more opportunities in other stock markets. Due to Japan's undervalued stock market, macroeconomic recovery, and long-term corporate reform issues, the bank remains bullish on the Japanese stock market. In terms of emerging markets, investors are returning from Latin America to Asian markets this year, bringing attractive opportunities to the region. Based on the promising economic growth prospects in Asia, including China's continued supportive policies leading to stabilized GDP growth, and with stock markets currently at a PE ratio of around 10, which is moderate, the bank continues to focus on Asia. The region also has attractive structural and cyclical growth concepts, such as India and Indonesia, whose election-related uncertainties have been resolved in recent months. In addition, the semiconductor cycle has boosted the prospects of Taiwan and South Korea. Many central banks are expected to cut rates later this year, but this will also depend on the actions of the Federal Reserve. Shen Yu, Head of China and Asia Specialized Equity at HSBC Investment Management, stated that Asian stock markets offer significant opportunities for investors. China's latest real estate policy measures show the government's determination to intensify efforts to address issues in the real estate market. The bank believes that a more stable Chinese real estate market will benefit the overall Chinese economy and stock market. He pointed out that despite a significant rebound from the lows at the end of January, MSCI China Index and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index are still trading at a significant discount compared to mature and emerging markets. If a supportive attitude and more proactive policies are introduced at the Third Plenum in July, the average valuation in the market could further increase. With investors flowing back from Latin America, China's ongoing supportive policies, and attractive valuations, the growth prospects in Asia are promising. The bank expects investing in Asian markets at present can provide higher returns and diversified opportunities.
Jingshun: Asian (excluding Japan) stock markets are expected to continue to grow in the second half of 2024.
Schroder Investment Management: The Federal Reserve still has a chance to cut interest rates this year. Short to medium-term bonds can better control interest rate risks.