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Morgan Asset Management: It is expected that there will be more positive factors in the Hong Kong stock market in the fourth quarter.
Hong Kong stocks had a stable start last week, with a total weekly increase of 81 points or 0.5%. The market is eagerly awaiting the Third Plenum next week.
Morgan Asset Management stated in a post that, entering the second half of the year, Hong Kong stocks started the week with fluctuations but ended up stable, closing up 81 points or 0.5% for the week. The market is eagerly awaiting the Third Plenum scheduled for next week. Morgan Asset Management's Chief Market Strategist for Asia Pacific, Xu Changtai, believes that the Third Plenum is a long-term strategic indicator, with less focus on short-term macro policies. Therefore, market and investors' expectations for policies this time are not high, with more surprises than high expectations. Those interested in adding Hong Kong stocks to their portfolio may consider waiting for a while. Beishui recorded a total net inflow of 10.9 billion Hong Kong dollars over the four trading days last week, with the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and China Construction Bank (CCB) accounting for 5.8 billion Hong Kong dollars, more than half of the total. Xu Changtai also believes that the inflow of funds into domestic banks is due to the low interest rates and bond yields in mainland China, as well as the relatively low cash returns. Even though the dividend yields have fallen from their high levels of around 8% in the past few months, they are still attractive to Beishui. He pointed out that stock selection will still focus on traditional sectors and high dividend stocks, both of which have shown stable performance in the past six months. Consumer stocks such as e-commerce and internet giants, although profitable, will require further strengthening of consumer purchasing power, with expectations for a potential improvement during the Double Eleven shopping festival and the year-end holiday season. Xu Changtai believes that if investors want to add more Hong Kong stocks to their portfolio, they may consider waiting a while longer. This is because the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September may not be as high as the market expects. If one or two economic data points improve, the timing of the rate cut may be pushed back to December. Additionally, with the US presidential election scheduled for the fourth quarter, it may be better to wait for uncertainties to pass before entering the market. It is expected that the stock market will have more positive factors in the fourth quarter.
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