DWS American economist Christian Scherrmann believes that although the current situation does not yet require Federal Reserve officials to take decisive measures, the reasons for cutting interest rates in the next few months are undoubtedly more compelling. The firm maintains its expectation for the first interest rate cut in December and believes that verbal intervention can effectively control any unnecessary market weakness. Nevertheless, the likelihood of a rate cut starting in September has increased. Christian Scherrmann points out that the non-farm payrolls in the United States grew from 218,000 in June to 206,000, slightly below market expectations. More disappointingly, private sector employment growth dropped significantly from the previous 193,000 to 136,000. At the same time, the total number of new jobs created in the past two months has been revised down by 111,000, indicating that the foundation of the labor market was already weak. Wage growth was as expected, slowing from 0.4% per month to 0.3%. The labor force participation rate increased slightly from 62.5% to 62.6%, while the unemployment rate also rose from 4.0% to 4.1%, indicating that labor demand has not been able to fully absorb the new supply. In addition, the June labor market report may signal a turning point for strong job growth in the US economy. Although wage-driven inflation pressures still exist, as labor supply growth slows down and demand gradually declines, it appears to be in line with the tightening pace of monetary policy, which is expected to strengthen market confidence in further decline in future inflation. However, with the unemployment rate currently stable in the neutral range, the Federal Reserve's recent sensitivity to the labor market conditions may intensify. Once the labor market weakens, it often falls into a vicious cycle, making it difficult for Federal Reserve officials to adjust their response measures. Prematurely easing policies may exacerbate inflation and have the opposite effect, but waiting too long may miss the opportunity for a soft landing.