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Fidelity: Optimistic about the US and Asian stock markets in the second half of the year, Hong Kong stocks tend to be conservative.
Fidelity International Investment Strategy Director Jian Liheng said that if major central banks start cutting interest rates in the second half of the year, it will be beneficial for both stocks and bonds, but stocks are likely to outperform bonds. In addition, if economic data continue to support consecutive interest rate cuts, the stock market performance will remain positive, with a preference for the stock markets of India, Taiwan, and South Korea.
Fidelity International Investment Strategy Director Jian Liheng stated that if major central banks start cutting interest rates in the second half of the year, it would be beneficial for both stocks and bonds. However, stocks tend to outperform bonds, especially if economic data continues to support continuous rate cuts. He is particularly optimistic about the stock markets in India, Taiwan, and South Korea. As for the Chinese and Hong Kong markets, the outlook depends on policy changes and corporate profit trends, with a more conservative view on the technical side of the Hong Kong stock market. He pointed out that Trillions of MPF is a long-term investment and members should diversify their investments rather than concentrating on individual markets. Jian Liheng pointed out that the performance of the mainland China and Hong Kong stock markets in the first quarter was mixed, with some improvement in the second quarter in mainland China, particularly in the manufacturing sector. He believes that the economy is not developing positively across the board and anticipates that central authorities will introduce measures such as easing fiscal policies. He believes that the rebound in the Hong Kong stock market is better than that of A-shares mainly due to the lower valuation of the Hang Seng Index, but A-share companies have better profitability than Hong Kong stocks. The future trend will depend on policy changes and whether corporate profits can give investors confidence and attract global fund rotation. Fidelity stated that global bond performance was weakest in the first half of the year, with Trillions of MPF plan funds averaging a return of -3.2%. Jian Liheng explained that the allocation of global bonds is mainly in the United States, Europe, and Japan. Despite the attraction of US bond yields, which at one point reached as high as 4.5%, they exerted downward pressure on bond prices. While euro-zone bonds showed good performance when interest rates were lowered, changes in political situations following elections in some countries offset the positive impact of rate cuts. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan's rate hikes and a weak yen are negative factors for Japanese bonds. Although the market anticipates rate cuts in the United States in the second half of the year, the wide fluctuation in bond yields will result in lower investment returns, reaffirming that stocks or even cash perform better than bonds. He predicts that the US still has room for rate cuts this time, but it is difficult to estimate the number of rate cuts at this stage. Local employment data already indicates a slowing economy, but factors such as reshoring of manufacturing to the US and climate investments are driving up medium- to long-term cost prices. The Federal Reserve still needs further data to support its decisions on rate cuts.
Boden: Asian investors still lack sufficient allocation to private alternative investments, and it is expected that demand for private funds will soar in the coming years.
Schroder Investment Management: The probability of a "soft landing" for the US economy has increased, making it difficult for global bond markets to experience a structural rebound.