Goldman Sachs Asset Management: Suggests moderately overweighting US stocks and bullish on technology, energy, and industrial stocks.

2024-07-11 17:52

Zhitongcaijing
Neill Nuttall has a positive view on risk assets and suggests a "moderate overweight" position in US stocks, and he is bullish on technology, energy, and industrial stocks.
Goldman Sachs Asset Management Co-Chief Investment Officer Neill Nuttall stated that despite facing geopolitical risks, the global growth environment is favorable, inflation is slowing down, and global central banks are cutting interest rates one after another. He has a positive view on risk assets and recommends a "moderate overweight" in US stocks, especially in technology, energy, and industrial stocks. However, he has a cautious view on defensive stocks, utility stocks, and consumer staples.
With US stocks repeatedly hitting new highs this year, Neill Nuttall believes that the 12-month forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is currently at 22 times, higher than historical averages. However, the forward P/E ratio of the seven largest US stocks is at 32 times, meaning that other components of the index are at an average of around 16 to 17 times, which he considers reasonable in the current context.
He recommends cyclical stocks, favors energy stocks, and believes that energy stocks are currently attractive. As for industrial stocks, they may benefit from the US "Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act" fiscal stimulus and infrastructure developments around semiconductors.
Considering the positive outlook for artificial intelligence (AI), he does not recommend "underweighting" technology stocks as the impact of AI is still in its early stages. The beneficiaries of AI will undoubtedly be those involved in data, including data collection and utilization, and there may be other potential beneficiaries yet to be discovered. With the development of AI, high-end chips are facing challenges due to energy shortages, and the winners will also change over time.
In addition, Neill Nuttall believes that stocks outside of the US are relatively undervalued compared to US stocks, with forecast P/E ratios for UK stocks at 11 to 12 times and European stocks at record discounts compared to US stocks.
Neill Nuttall has a "moderate overweight" view on Japanese stocks. He explains that 43% of the earnings of Japanese companies come from overseas, so when converted to yen, it is positive. However, the benefits of a weak yen are being offset by domestic challenges caused by imported inflation. Furthermore, 42% of Japanese shares are cyclical, so they can benefit from the global interest rate cycle.
He points out that the US economy has been growing above trend but is now slowing down. He believes that after a seasonal and special factors-driven increase in inflation in the first quarter, the tightening trend will continue, creating an environment for interest rate cuts. Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in line with market expectations, with two to three rate cuts expected by January next year, making fixed income assets somewhat attractive.