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DWS: The Fed will not start cutting interest rates until December. There will be an adjustment in the US stock market before the presidential election.
DWS Global Chief Investment Officer Bjrn Jesch predicts that by June 2025, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times, but he expects the first rate cut to begin in December of this year and the rate cut path will still be very gradual.
DWS global chief investment officer Bjrn Jesch expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times by June 2025, with the first cut likely to start in December of this year, and the rate cut path will still be very gradual. As for the European Central Bank, with the improvement in inflation outlook, the bank expects to cut interest rates three times per quarter before March 2025. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in August of this year, and accumulate a total of four rate cuts by June 2025. In addition, Bjrn Jesch believes that although US stock valuations are high, as long as the "Big Seven" continue to bring good earnings and maintain impressive R&D results, stock prices are expected to continue to rise, and there are no signs of any decline so far. DWS has raised its stock price target based on higher earnings assumptions, as investors are increasingly focusing on the fiscal policies of the next president, as well as the development trends of US debt and bond yields. DWS expects an adjustment before the US election. Although the extent to which artificial intelligence (AI) will ultimately bring productivity gains remains to be seen, the tens of billions of dollars currently invested in AI and related investments are not temporary, and will continue to drive GDP and corporate earnings growth. The bank has set a target of 5600 points for the S&P 500 Index by June 2025, and maintains an estimated P/E ratio of 21.5 based on the past 12 months of profit levels. In terms of emerging markets, DWS remains cautious on Chinese stocks. Although the earnings reported by tech companies are impressive recently. On the other hand, India is gradually recovering with support from local buyers. By June 2025, the target price for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is 1110 points.
Schroder: Valuations of the mainland China and Hong Kong stock markets have bottomed out. We are waiting to see if the Third Plenum will announce a loosening policy.
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