Puli: Emerging Market Bonds Expected to Benefit from Potential Fed Rate Cuts

2024-07-22 11:53

Zhitongcaijing
With the Federal Reserve about to take action, short-term strategies become more important. At the same time, with the prospect of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term, benefiting emerging market bonds accordingly.
Pulsar Investment Management indicated that it is currently focusing on investment areas in the market that have the potential for high returns and low risk characteristics, such as individual securitized credit. These areas have the opportunity to benefit when the market rises, while effectively limiting the downside risk caused by rising interest rates, which the market is currently undervaluing. With the Federal Reserve about to take action, short-term strategies are becoming more important. At the same time, with the prospect of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term, benefiting emerging market bonds as a result.
Pulsar Investment Management has a more cautious view on the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cut policy compared to the market. The market currently generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates about 7 times in the next 4 to 5 quarters, while Pulsar Investment Management predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, but also does not rule out the possibility of the Federal Reserve taking more action before the end of the year.
Pulsar Investment Management points out that under the Federal Reserve's monetary policy of "higher long-term interest rates," the US economy, although suppressed, is not on the brink of collapse. While inflation is indeed moving in a reasonable direction, its future trajectory still contains variables. Compared to the end of 2019, the degree of globalization in the world today has decreased, and inflation pressures may be greater. As the distorting effects of the pandemic on the financial system gradually diminish, global fragmentation issues are now more worthy of attention.