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UBS Asset Management Central Bank Survey: Nearly 70% of respondents expect the global economy is most likely to experience a soft landing.
According to a survey conducted by UBS Asset Management, 66% of the 40 central banks surveyed globally expect the global economy to most likely experience a soft landing, while only 16% estimate that the global economy will enter a recession.
According to the survey results from UBS Asset Management, of the 40 central banks surveyed globally, 66% believe that the global economy is most likely to experience a soft landing, while only 16% estimate that the global economy will enter a recession. 68% believe that the global economy has entered a period of high inflation, and that this higher inflation will persist for a longer period of time. 87% see the escalation of geopolitical conflicts as the main risk, higher than in previous years. Among the central banks surveyed, the average allocation to the US dollar is 55%, which is similar to last year's 56%. Over the past year, more central banks have increased their holdings of the Euro and the Yen, while decreasing their holdings of the British Pound. Additionally, more central banks plan to further increase their holdings of the Euro and the Chinese Yuan. 70% are currently investing or considering investing in the Chinese Yuan, a decrease of 2% compared to last year, and also lower than in 2022 and 2021. Looking ahead to the next 5 years, 43% believe that central bank currency diversification will still be centered around the US dollar, while 26% believe that the allocation will be more diversified among the US dollar, Euro, and Chinese Yuan. On average, respondents expect the allocation of the Chinese Yuan to be 5% in ten years, lower than last year's 5.2%.
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