Barclays released a report stating that considering the disappointing job growth data in the US in July, it is currently expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times this year, by 25 basis points each in September, November, and December, and three more times next year. The bank believes that an imminent economic recession will not prompt the Federal Reserve to significantly lower interest rates. Barclays predicts that the US unemployment rate will rise to 4.3% in the third quarter and further increase to 4.4% in the fourth quarter, higher than the median of the long-term normal unemployment rate predicted by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in June. The gradual increase in unemployment rate will prove that an additional 25 basis points interest rate cut this year is justified. Barclays points out that assuming the labor market shows continued resilience in August and the unemployment rate stops rising, it is currently unreasonable to expect a 50 basis points interest rate cut in the September meeting.